BURLEY EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP

 

There's not much U.S. burley to put in storage, as shown here in a file photo of one of Burley Stabilization's Warehouses in Springfield, Tn. No additional supplies of burley are likely to show up between now and when marketing winds up in a few weeks, so the 2020 crop will be a small one. Jerry Rankin, farmer and warehouseman from Danville, Ky., says he estimates Kentucky production at 41 to 42 million pounds, a little less than he estimated in early November. Attrition among growers could significantly affect U.S. burley production next year, as some leading growers are leaving the type. This past season will be the last one for Rod Kuegel of Owensboro, Ky. A decline in yields was the main reason, he said. “2020 was our fourth season in a row of under 2,500-pound yields,” Kuegel said. He doesn’t know why. "The declines seem timed to the effective climate we have had. We have had a lot of rain the last three seasons.” He will continue, however, to grow some dark air-cured. The rains have lowered yield for that type too, but the price has remained higher than it has for burley. “The companies that buy dark tobacco have been more responsive to the needs of the growers,” Kuegel said. In Cox’s Creek, Ky., south of Louisville, Scott Travis quit growing burley, his only tobacco type, after 2019. Like Kuegel, declining yields and stagnant prices were the main factors in Travis’ decision. “If you are hiring a significant portion of your labor, you can’t grow burley for $1.80 a pound,” he said.   With the 2020 flue-cured crop in Virginia marketed and in processing or beyond, Extension tobacco specialist David Reed believes production was about 10 percent below expectations. The quality of some of the down stalk tobacco was not good, but some cutters turned out well. In passing: Long-time Extension plant pathologist and professor Chuck Johnson of the Southern Piedmont Agricultural Research and Extension Center in Blackstone has retired. But the quality is very good, he says. "Here in our area, we have the best burley crop in 15 years." What makes a contract valid? According to the Risk Management Agency, it must be a written agreement between you and a processor or manufacturer of tobacco, and it must contain at a minimum: Your commitment to produce tobacco on your farm operation during the insurance period and deliver the production to the processor or manufacturer, The processor or manufacturer’s commitment to purchase the tobacco stated in the contract; and The total number of pounds of tobacco to be delivered. The January II, 2021, issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter: This issue ran a little late because of illness. In the next few days TFN will produce a special issue related to machinery...If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email your subscription request to TFN at chrisbickers@gmail.com. Include phone number and your affiliation with tobacco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer or Extension agent.

Copies of The Bluegrass and Beyond are still available. To attain one, send $20, plus $8 shipping and handling to 7413 Six Forks Rd., #126, Raleigh NC 27615. Questions? Call me at 919 789 4631 or email me at  chrisbickers@ gmail. com.

Your copy should address 3 key questions: Who am I writing for? (Audience) Why should th ey care? (Benefit) What do I want them to do here? (Call-tovvvvv-Action)Create a great offer by adding words like

Welcome to the January I, 2021, issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email your subscription request to TFN at chrisbickers@gmail.com. Include phone number and your affiliation with tobacco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer or Extension agent.

WILL FARMERS RETREAT FROM FULL HARVEST MECHANIZATION?

 

Another machine you would have seen at the Southern Farm Show--if it hadn't been cancelled: Hand primers for flue-cured [Photo courtesy of Granville Equipment]. There's a trend back to hand harvest of flue-cured thanks to the pressure to bring to market top quality leaf to the market. In response there is growing demand for "hand primers" like Granville Equipment's Four Row Hand Primer. Similar to the old riding harvesters, this type of machine helps produce the best leaf possible. Randy Watkins of Granville Equipment Company tells TFN that his company has already sold several units for 2021. Strongest selling points, after quality? “You are able to save energy and time when your laborers prime while riding. They can pull when the sun is at its hottest with less downtime.” You also don’t have to pick it at the barn. "You put it straight into the baler,” he said. The maintenance cost of a hand primer is about five percent of that of a multipass machine, he adds.   Worth repeating: It was a terrible season for South Carolina tobacco. A good production figure hasn’t yet been compiled, but Matthew Inman, S.C. Extension specialist, says many growers harvested only about half a crop. Too much water was the reason. The weather during transplant season in South Carolina is predicted to be warm and dry, at least for now. That could set the stage for increased greenhouse disease, Pythium being the most common. Inman is encouraging a preventive application of the fungicide Terramaster, starting three to four weeks after seeding. “Of course, nothing can take the place of good sanitation practices,” says Inman. “Start clean, stay clean.” RMA declares war on uncontracted flue-cured. The Risk Management Agency (RMA) has made two changes in its flue cured tobacco insurance program for 2021, both of which lessen the value of uncontracted flue-cured for insurance purposes. The first is that there will be two price “elections” for flue cured tobacco. Tobacco grown under a valid contract will receive one price ($1.80 a pound), while tobacco grown without a valid contract will receive another ($.90 a pound). Producers with a valid contract who choose to grow more tobacco than they have contracted will receive a weighted average price for all their insured tobacco. Also, uncontracted flue cured will not be eligible for quality adjustment this year. Editor's note: I derived all of this from some very confusing documents from RMA. I will provide a more detailed report in my next issue. Outlook dimming: At my request, my friend Robert Dudney of Gallatin, Tn., shared a few thoughts about non-contract burley and auction marketing. He is not optimistic. “Changes in crop insurance and the projected demand for non-contract tobacco is not good. The only positive outcome for non-contract tobacco would be resolution of the trade issues with China and EU and if crop quality in Brazil and Zimbabwe declines sharply. But if our crop quality remains very strong, this could cause an increase in demand that would help non contract tobacco. I hope there is a future for non contract tobacco and the auction system in the tobacco industry. But I would not hold my breath for this scenario. Overall, demand for tobacco is still declining, and it would take a miracle to save this sector of the market for the future.”

A final note: Thanks so much for all the kind words I've received about the book I recently co-wrote on the history of burley in Kentucky and its neighboring states. It was a lot fun gathering material for it, like the picture at right, which shows little Jack Mitchell, five years old, helping his father pick out worms and pull suckers on the family farm near Gracey in southwestern Ky. A photographer stopped by in 1916 and learned from Jack's mother that he was quite a worker. “But he ain’t old enough to go to school yet." If you would like a copy of The Bluegrass and Beyond, send $20, plus $8 shipping and handling for delivery by the US Postal Service (alternate delivery methods can be negotiated). To order, write to me, Chris Bickers, at 7413 6 Forks Rd., #126, Raleigh NC 27615. Questions? Call at 919 789 4631 or email at  chrisbickers@ gmail. com.

Your copy should address 3 key questions: Who am I writing for? (Audience) Why should th ey care? (Benefit) What do I want them to do here? (Call-tovvvvv-Action)Create a great offer by adding words like

Welcome to the January I, 2021, issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email your subscription request to TFN at chrisbickers@gmail.com. Include phone number and your affiliation with tobacco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer or Extension agent.

Your copy should address 3 key questions: Who am I writing for? (Audience) Why should they care?

Your copy should address 3 key questions: Who am I writing for? (Audience) Why should they care Benefi