Above: A tornado ravaged the processing facilities of the Burley Stabilization Corporation in Springfield, Tn., on December 8.  LAST IMPRESSION OF 2023 TOBACCO: ALL MAJOR TYPES CAME UP SHORT The quality of 2023 flue-cured was very good. "Every pile offered for sale was sound usable tobacco, very desirable leaf," says Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco, a leaf dealer in Wilson, N.C. “Unfortunately, there is not enough of it. We are 50 million pounds short of the anticipated volume.” As a result, the price was strong. “There were a lot of dollars chasing not enough volume.”   The secondary market price was especially good, says Smith, who buys at the N.C. auctions. “The average was only a little short of the contract price,” says Smith. “I am not sure what the average ended up being, but it held pretty well up till the end: The last pile I saw sold went for $2.25.” The quality of the N.C. flue-cured crop seems to have appeqaled to buyers. "We had plenty of orange leaf," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "But there wasn't a lot of bright leaf, so manufactures loooking for that may have been disappointed." A good bit of the burley crop has been delivered to its buyers, says Joe Cain, the executive director of the new Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Association. "The quality is decent, though we don’t have the color we really wanted. But the curing situation of a few weeks ago has improved thanks to weather conditions. We have had some rain. A few farmers are leaving their tobacco in the  barn longer than usual to help get the color. The dark types of the Black Patch had a production shortfall too.  There was a lot of angular leafspot (ALS). Some of the dark fire-cured crop here never got harvested due to ALS damage. “Some that did get harvested shouldn't have,” says Extension tobacco specialist Andy Bailey “I would estimate fields that were a complete loss and not harvested amounted to at least 30%. There was maybe another 25% that was obviously damaged but still harvested.” Dark fire-cured is much more vulnerable to ALS than darkair0cured. Burley and Connecticut broadleaf are rarely affected by it. Variety choice doesn’t help much with ALS, says Bailey. “Some varieties do better than others, but none are resistant. And some of the more tolerant varieties are highly vulnerable to black shank.”But there is one situation where a variety might help with ALS. “If you want to plant dark in a field with none or very low black shank, PD7309 might be a good strategic choice against ALS. It fares reasonably well in the presence of ALS. But it has no resistance to Race One black shank, although it is resistant to Race zero.” Don’t take a chance with a field with any history of black shank. You may not see ALS every year but if you have black shank, you are going to see it almost every year.” The quality of N.C. flue-cured seems to have appealed to buyers. "We had plenty of orange leaf," says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "But there wasn't a lot of bright leaf, so manufactures looking for that may have been slightly disappointed." There is one new flue-cured variety for 2024, he says. It’s PVH 1940, and it’s early and fast ripening. A tight burley supply situation became tighter when a thunderous tornado struck the Burley Stabilization Corporation's central facility in Springfield, Tn. The offices and receiving warehouse were largely destroyed leaving much of the tobacco in the warehouse subject to the elements. But the farmers got one small bit of good fortune: This tornado was not accompanied by torrential rains as one normally expects and in fact there was no rain for several days thereafter. So the cooperative was able to save some of the leaf, although a report is yet to come.  Hats off to BSC: Within three days, they had rerouted deliveries aimed for the Springfield receiving station to the station in Glasgow, Ky., so farmers would not experience long delays in selling their leaf. That is not an unalloyed blessing since some of the Springfield farmers are quite some distance from Glasgow. BSC leaders hope to have Springfield functioning again in time for next season’s market opening. Meet new specialists at winter county meetings: In the Virginia meetings, a new molecular assay will be introduced, which will, when it’s fully functional, be able to identify high and low black shank pathogen levels in soil. Virginia’s still-new Extension tobacco pathologist, Zeng Yuan , will make the presentation. She has been part of the staff for 15 months. In North Carolina, the new Extension tobacco pathologist, Daisy Ahumada (will tell about the new formulation of Orondis that may help in black shank control. She joined the NCSU staff in June. DATES TO REMEMBER 51st Tobacco Workers' Conference, January 15 – 18, at the Convention Center in Knoxville, Tennessee. For more information, go to the official website at www.twconference.com. Southern Farm Show, January 31 through February 2, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission is free.  Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., Friday, February 2, at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh.

COULD BURLEY LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY?

 

Dry weather is interfering with taking down and stripping the burley that remains hanging in the barns, like this one in the Kentucky Bluegrass. USDA reported that 76% of the Kentucky crop had been stripped by November 24. In Tennessee, USDA’s recent production estimate of 4.6 million pounds of burley seems credible, says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. “That would be in the general range of what we have had the last few years,” he says. Farmers had a very good crop in the field, but some may have been delayed in stripping because of very dry conditions that made it difficult to get the leaf in case. “But we have gotten some rains that last couple of weeks.” Kentuckians are having the same problem. “We had a good crop coming out of the fields but now there is a fear that it might cure up light,” says Joe Cain, the executive director of the new Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Association (KBDTPA). “We have had some dry weather with no fogs or rain.” Most of the crop is in the barn now. Disappearance of burley has left East Tennessee looking a lot different. It used to be that if you drove through the countryside in the eastern part of Tennessee in the growing season, you would frequently come across burley patches. No more, says Richmond. “We have maybe five counties that are significant in burley, but usually there are just four or five growers in each.” In 1982, there were 4,100 growers in Greene County, which borders North Carolina. This year, there might have been eight. Letters from Readers Two Opinions on Why H2A Wage Rates are Unsustainable The biggest cost on the farm is labor, which appears to be on an upward trend [via H2A program rates]. It is unsustainable. N.C. is approaching $16 for differential wage rates. It seems very interesting that we all have rallied for change, and now when we get change, it includes not one good thing for the farmer. Every aspect of this change has a negative impact for the family farm. How did they change the rules? And why are North Carolinians paying over a dollar an hour more than bordering states South Carolina, Georgia and Florida? Rodney Jackson, Autryville, N.C. I feel that the H2A labor cost is the main threat to the future of American tobacco production. I could easily grow many more acres if I brought in migrant labor, but I don’t see how I could generate enough income to make it worth it. We use all local labor now. The H2A program is a problem, financially as well as culturally.  Anthony McGary, Breckinridge County, Ky.  Editor's Note: If you have a thought you would like to share, please feel free to email it to me at chrisbickers@gmail.com. DATES TO REMEMBER 51st Tobacco Workers' Conference, January 15 – 18, at the Convention Center in Knoxville, Tennessee. For more information, go to the official website at www.twconference.com.  Southern Farm Show, January 31 through February 2, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission is free. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., Friday, February 2, at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Tobacco farmer leads Kentucky agriculture: A former burley grower has been elected Agriculture Commissioner in Kentucky. Jonathan Shell (photo) of Lancaster in Garrard County grew up on a burley farm that at its peak produced 200 acres of tobacco. Shell, a Republican, will take office January 2. He succeeds Ryan Quarles, who completed his term limit of eight years after being elected twice.

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Workers from the Oxford (N.C.)Tobacco Research Station sweep up some of the last flue-cured tobacco produced this season. Reportedly high in quality, it was gathered, then looped, cured and sold at a demonstration auction at the North Carolina State Fair (Photo by Christopher Bickers). A CROP TO BE THANKFUL FOR You know, I wonder if we might look back on the 2023 flue-cured crop some day and think it was one of the the best of the Twenty First Century. Maybe not, but it was a good one. Here is how  Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist, characterized it. “On average, in North Carolina, we had a solid crop from a yield and quality standpoint, and it gives us good momentum for 2024. 2023 was not without its challenges, with adverse weather a major factor. But our crop stood up against heat and drought very well, thanks to some timely showers." It is predicted that the Southeast will have above average rain this winter, he says. "That is good news," says Vann. "It’s dry across the state now, and we need some ponds to fill back up!" Late in the flue-cured market, prices were steady, and quality remained good. A wide variety of grades was coming to the market. “Farmers are selling their pickings as well as upperstalk grades,” said one warehouseman. “Some low quality tobacco left over from earlier in the season is also being brought to market.” It appeared that any sound tobacco from this crop found a home somewhere. A good burley crop is also headed for market, but as it stands now, none will be sold at auction. The only auction that operated last season will not operate at all in 2023-24, says its owner, Jerry Franklin of Danville, Ky., had moved his Farmers Warehouse from Danville to Springfield two seasons ago. But this year, he was outbid in his effort to rent the Springfield warehouse again, and he was unable to find a suitable replacement. Now, his advice is to use up all the contracts that you have access to. But he is afraid there is some burley out there that is not attached to a contract. Rankin may be able to help: He still has some access to cigarette manufactures and is willing to take as much uncontracted tobacco there as he can. Note though that it wouldn't be sold on auction. Call Rankin if you are interested (859 319 1400) and watch this space: There is a talk that a major burley broker may be able to organize some sort of marketing strategy. I will keep you posted. MORE FROM THE OCTOBER PRODUCTION REPORT FROM USDA 2023 estimate, percentage change from 2022  FLUE-CURED:                                                                   North Carolina—248.6 million pounds, no change. Virginia—30.72 million pounds, up 5.8%. Georgia--12.6 million pounds, no change. South Carolina--13.34 million pounds, up 14.6%.  Total U.S. 305.2 million pounds, up less than one percent.  BURLEY: Kentucky--55.35 million pounds, up 5.7%.  Pennsylvania--2.53 million pounds, down 22.7%  Tennessee--4.5 million pounds, up 7.4%  Virginia--420 thousand pounds, down 16%.  North Carolina--240 thousand pounds, down 12.7%.  Total US burley--63 million pounds, up seven percent. FIRE-CURED:  Kentucky--22 million pounds, down 28.7% Tennessee--16 million pounds, down 20.3% Virginia 220,000 pounds, down 33.3% Total US fired-cured--38.3 million pounds, down 25 percent. DARK AIR-CURED: Kentucky--9.99 million pounds, down 34.7%. Tennessee--3 million pounds, down 68%                                        Total US--13 million pounds, down 47 percent. PA SEEDLEAF:  Pennsylvania--9.6 million pounds, up less than one percent.       SOUTHERN MARYLAND: Pennsylvania--135,000 pounds, down 41 percent.  ALL TOBACCO U. S.: 429.4 million pounds, down four percent. SPOTLIGHT   WOULD ADDITIONAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON FOREIGN BURLEY HELP?  By Jim Starkey, retired agricultural economist A response to "Competing with imports for the domestic market," TFN November 1 2023   When the burley [Tariff rate] quota was originally set, it was set at a very restrictive level compared with imports at the time. It did not allow for any new countries over the original ones originally included in the quota. This means that current major world producers like Mozambique are excluded. At the time only Brazil and Malawi utilized a significant part of their quotas. I haven't seen the current numbers so do not know whether this has changed but I don't know why it would have. As I pointed out earlier, new producers cannot import into the U.S. and I doubt there has been significant expansion of production and sales from the countries that have quotas. That imports are higher this year than last is an irrelevant comparison as the lower levels last year are probably due to production shortages abroad last year which limited countries sales to the U.S. to less than their traditional levels.   The fact that world burley production is expanding while U.S production is declining suggests the world market may be limited for high quality, high price/cost burley; the countries which are expanding produce lower quality, lower priced tobacco. I don't believe additional import restrictions would change that fact or result in any significant increase in U.S. Burley production. A NOTE TO READERS If you haven't signed on to receive this newsletter regularly, or if you need to change an address or add a friend or family member name to the list, please email a subscription request to chris bic kers @ gmail.com. Include your phone number and your affiliation with tob-acco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer, speci-alist or as Extension agent.

The supply at flue-cured auctions was short, but not as short as shown at the annual "mock auction" at the N.C State Fair on October 20, auctioneered by Ted Hinson. Photo courtesy NCDA&CS. SHORT SUPPLY OF FLUE-CURED KEEPS LATE-SEASON PRICES STRONG Buyer demand is definitely keeping the price up at the American Tobacco Exchange auction warehouse in Wilson, N.C. “We are seeing the best prices since we started conducting live sales here years ago,” says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager. “Prices are high for all grades. The range is about $1 to $2.30 per pound. Averages per grade have remained about the same since the beginning of auctions”…Now, volume is down, he says. “Our sales are running about two thirds the volume they were earlier.” But ATE will continue to sell as long as there is tobacco that needs a home. “I suspect we will sell right up till Thanksgiving,” says Faulkner. The situation is a little different in Western North Carolina. The crop is just about complete, and Old Belt Tobacco Sales of Rural Hall, N.C., will hold its final sale on November 7. “Our sales volume is down from last year,” says Dennis White, owner of the Old Belt warehouse. “It was a short crop: There weren’t enough plants, then considerable replanting was needed. And it ended up being late.” Another factor was that receiving stations made very few rejections, at least from the Piedmont crop. So there wasn’t that much to sell but demand was strong as in the East, so prices were very good, says White. . “Good orange Leaf brought $2.30 a pound, bale after bale. Good second quality went for $2.20 to 2.25, and third quality brought $2.10.” The last little bit of flue-cured in the area was harvested by October 29, White says. In fact, it appears that all of this crop in N.C. had been harvested by Halloween, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "In fact, I'm willing to bet that north of 90% was finished by the time the State Fair ended [October 22]." Intense cold the night of November 1 probably killed any plants that were still in the field. Growers continue to report favorable marketing opportunities for their tobacco, Vann says.  Tobacco specialists appointed: The N.C. Extension tobacco team has two new members--Daisy Ahumada, plant pathologist who will cover corn and cotton, along with tobacco; and Jeff Dorffman, agricultural economist, who will be providing expertise in the area of tobacco forecasting and outlook, similar to the recently retired Blake Brown. SPOTLIGHT WHAT THE COMING YEAR HOLDS FOR BURLEY Derived from 2023 Tobacco Update (with some editing) By Will Snell, Kentucky Extension Ag Economist  While burley demand is shrinking worldwide as blended-cigarette sales decline, the August 2023 Universal Leaf estimated that Africa will go from a burley crop totaling 278 million pounds in 2022 to 379 million pounds in 2023 and 445 million pounds in 2024.  World burley production is forecast in that same report to increase by more than 40% in 2024 vs. 2022, with U.S. burley production remaining stagnant in 2024 vs. 2023.  On the trade front, tight global supplies are moving limited supplies of U.S. burley overseas. But U.S. burley exports nevertheless will remain at negligible levels (13 million pounds in 2022). Imports of foreign burley into the U.S. remain a challenge for the domestic burley sector (73 million pounds in 2022). So far in 2023 (through June), U.S. burley imports are 57% higher compared to the same period last year. In recent years, U.S. manufacturers and dealers have imported more burley leaf than U.S. burley growers have actually produced, resulting in import use by domestic manufacturers remaining at over 50%.  Tobacco organizations are re-viewing policy options to address this trade imbalance. On the product side, U.S. cigarette sales continue to slump as consumers switch to alternative nicotine products. After falling 8.7% in 2022, U.S. cigarette production is down 8% so far in 2023 with consumers shifting to non-premium brands amid inflationary pressures on smoker purchasing decisions. Sidebar: Competing with imports for the domestic market In recent years, U.S. manufacturers and dea-lers imported more burley than U.S. burley growers have produced. This has resulted in import use by domestic manufacturers remain-ing at over 50%. One possible solution: Im-port quota restrictions were put in place in 1996 when U.S. ciga-rette production hit re-cord levels. These im-port quotas have never since been adjusted, and American cigarette production dropped by 75%.