A NEW GROWER ASSOCIATION IS BORN IN KENTUCKY

 

The Holiday Inn University Plaza in Bowling Green, KY where the first annual meeting of the new growers association will be held January 19.

The first annual meeting of the Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producer Association will be held at the Holiday Inn University Plaza Hotel and Conference Center in Bowling Green, KY on January 19. This will be a joint meeting with the Council for Burley Tobacco, and it will be held in conjunction with the KY Commodity Conference. There is no fee to attend, but you should reserve a seat at lunch. Email KYTobaccoGrowers@ outlook.com. What you will find in Bowling Green: A program designed to help tobacco growers take control of their future. It will begin at 9:30 a.m. Thursday morning with presentations by Will Snell, Ky. Extension ag economist, and Daniel Green, chief executive officer of Burley Stabilization Corporation on the current tobacco economy. Andy Bailey and Robert Pearce, both Kentucky Extension agronomists, will catch you up on research that can make a difference on your farm. There will be talks on GAP Connections and Federal Crop insurance, among other subjects, and the program will conclude a discussion by a farmer panel made up of Graham Boyd, executive VP, and Jonathan Renn, president, of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina; Darrell Varner, president, of the Council For Burley Tobacco, and Al Pedigo, president of the Burley and Dark Producer Association. Adjournment should take place at 3. The Annual Breakfast with the Commissioner will be held on Friday, February 3, in the Holshouser Building at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh NC during the Southern Farm Show. Tickets can be purchased for $35 each at www.eventbrite.com/e/18th-annual-breakfast-with-the-commissioner-tickets-465942104377. Call Michael Rhodes, Executive Director, Tobacco Farm Life Museum, at 919-284-3431.   The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina will hold its 2023 annual meeting at 10 a.m. Friday, February 3, in conjunction with the Southern Farm Show. The venue will be the Holshouser Building at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. It will end with lunch around 12. There is no charge, and registration is not required.   The Southern Farm Show will take place February 1 through February 3 at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission is free. A list of tobacco-related exhibitors will appear in in the next TFN issue. In other tobacco news: Some products are short already, according to the N.C. Extension tobacco team. Of most concern: ·      Admire Pro (imidacloprid), a key insecticide for early season flea beetle, aphid and thrips suppression as well as suppression of tomato spotted wilt virus. ·      Telone II (1,3-D soil fumigant), one of the major nematicides that’s applied in advance of transplanting. There are alternatives to both. Watch this space for suggestions in the next issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. The problem may get bigger. “Supply chain issues continue to plague us. The downstream ramifications have a lot folks worried about cost.”   Tight burley supplies made for a promising season one year ago, but declining margins and unfavorable weather led to lower production again, says Will Snell, University of Kentucky agricultural economist. The value of Kentucky’s tobacco crop in 2022 may end up at around $250 million. A sign of the times: Dark tobacco may prove to have accounted for half or more of the total value of Kentucky’s tobacco crop last year. “Dark tobacco continues to benefit from stable smokeless tobacco sales coupled with virtually non-existent foreign competition,” says Snell. A better price, please! say Brazilians. The Brazilian tobacco growers association (AFUBRA) are in price negotiations this week, and they are determined that their price should go up. Benício Werner, president of AFUBRA, said before the price meeting, “What we hear from the main market researchers is that…it will still be a year of demand (in 2033). We are noticing that instead of having a 1% to 3% drop in consumption, the drop (in 2022) was only 0.2%, indicating that cigarette factories will need more tobacco.” In addition, the good quality of the production ought to be reflected in better prices. “Most (of our) farmers are producing the quality tobacco that the international market is asking for. We need to observe this because a country that exports 85% of its tobacco must be concerned” with quality.   GAP TRAINING MEETINGS IN JANUARY. For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All meetings are in English. No charge.   Tue, Jan 24, 9 am EST. Williamston, NC Wed., Jan 25, 9 am EST. Louisburg, NC Thu. Jan 26, 9 am EST. Greenville, NC Mon. Jan 30, 9 am EST. Lillington, NC Tue. Jan 31, 9 am EST. Goldsboro, NC

THE OUTLOOK FOR TOBACCO IN 2023

 

A foreign cigarette factory lies inactive waiting for more leaf. But activity has been slowed by short crops in almost all countries exporting cigarette leaf. International Leaf Markets: The shortfall of supply (all types) has been estimated at 1 million kilograms, says Iqbal Lambat, c.e.o. of the leaf dealer Star Tobacco International and one of the most astute observers of the world tobacco scene. "The shortfall has been driven primarily by short crops in most origins and by a sharp increase in leaf inventory holding by the major multinationals," Lambat says. Acute shortages were experienced in Brazil, Argentina, Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan. Prices for international tobaccos have experienced an increase of at least 30% in 2022 vs. 2021. But it may not be enough. "This shortage is expected to continue in 2023 and most likely 2024 too as farmers are unable to cope with the steep increase in the cost of fertilizers and energy," says Lampat. "The higher prices in the international markets reflect 'the new norm' and a reduction is not foreseen in the future." Flue-cured: A plan for flue-cured growers in 2023-- "Plant as many contracts as you can obtain, but I don't suggest overplanting," says Rick Smith, c.e.o. of Independent Leaf Tobacco Co. in Wilson. "I don't see contract prices going up much." The 2022 crop was short, but considering the weather problems it faced, it was just about miraculous that so much was usable. "It seemed that every bale that made it to the market was bought by somebody. And it was surprising that there was very little low-grade tobacco in this crop." Don't expect the same experiences next season. Burley and Dark: Despite current demand expectations, (especially for burley), Kentucky farmers will have an opportunity again to increase acreage in 2023 because of tight supplies, says Will Snell. Kentucky Extension agricultural economist. “[But whether they do or not] will depend on contract prices and the profit opportunities available from alternative ag enterprises.” Labor costs as always will be a big factor. “The H2A wage rate is forecast to increase from $13.89/hour to $14.26/hour, putting additional upward pressure on production costs amidst stagnant yields,” says Snell. Without better profit expectations, there will likely be more attrition in the number of farms growing tobacco in Kentucky in 2023. That could cause problems for tobacco companies attempting to boost inventories, he added. Kentucky’s tobacco production (all types) is forecast by USDA to be 10% lower in the crop now being marketed. Burley production was projected down 21%. Dark fire-cured production rebounded nearly 9% as a major buyer increased contract volumes by more than 50%, following an abrupt cut two years ago. Dark air production was relatively flat.  Cigar tobacco acres declined. Demand for U.S. burley continues to fall as less expensive foreign leaf has induced U.S. burley exports to plummet while the burley import share remains relatively high.  First state tobacco meeting of the year: The GA-FL GAP Tobacco Training for 2023 will take place on January 2, 9:30 am to 10 am, UGA Tifton Campus Conference Center. Ends with lunch. Free but please register. Call J. Michael Moore at 229 392 6424.    GAP TRAINING MEETINGS IN JANUARY. For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All in English. No charge. Fri., Jan 6, 10 am EST. Marion, SC Mon, Jan 9, 9 am EST. Wilson, NC Tue, Jan 10, 9 am EST. Yanceyville, NC Wed, Jan 11, 9 am EST. Rocky Mount, NC Thu., Jan 12, 9 am EST. Smithfield, NC Thu, Jan 12, 4 pm EST. Chatham, VA Fri., Jan 13, 9 am EST. Blackstone, VA Tue, Jan 24, 9 am EST. Williamston, NC Wed., Jan 25, 9 am EST. Louisburg, NC Thu. Jan 26, 9 am EST. Greenville, NC Mon. Jan 30, 9 am EST. Lillington, NC Tue. Jan 31, 9 am EST. Goldsboro, NC Book update: I am very happy to report that I have received an unexpected number of orders for my two history books--Burley & Beyond which centers on Kentucky and Ohio, and A History of Burley Tobacco in East Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina, which revolves around burley in those three states. I very quickly ran out of the copies of both that I have on hand, but I have found that more are stored at one of our printers, and I will retrieve them. If they don't have enough to fill all your orders, I will print more. I hope to have all your orders prepared and mailed by the first day of the Farm Show, or soon thereafter...Now, I have an embarrassing admission: In the last news item on this subject, I inadvertently left out the street name in the address I asked you to send orders to. If you mailed an order to that “address”, would you email your order to me again. Don’t send a check; I will invoice you once this is all straightened out. And if you would still like to place an order, please don’t send it by mail. Send an email instead, That address is chrisbickers@gmail.com. And thanks to all for your interest. VISIT OUR EXHIBIT AT THE SOUTHERN FARM SHOW, SPACE 1015.