The field season will shortly come to an end, with this crop almost entirely harvested now, except in the more northern sections of the Tobacco Belt and in the Piedmont. I surveyed Extension tobacco specialists and county agents to get a picture of what tobacco remains where in the states where tobacco remains in the field. My report appears below. But first, let me share with you the highlights of USDA's October Crop Report, divided by type and showing the projected volume for 2023 compared by percentage to 2022.
- FLUE-CURED: 305.2 million pounds, up less than one percent.
- BURLEY: 63 million pounds, up seven percent.
- FIRE-CURED: 38.3 million pounds, down 25 percent.
- DARK AIR-CURED: 13 million pounds, down 47 percent.
- PA SEEDLEAF: 9.6 million pounds, up less than one percent.
- SOUTHERN MARYLAND: 135,000 pounds, down 41 percent.
- ALL TOBACCO U. S.: 429.4 million pounds, down four percent.
Let me crunch these numbers a little and I will provide my analysis in a future issue.
STATE BY STATE REPORTS
FLUE-CURED
In North Carolina, the 2023 season is winding down, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist, and almost all the crop is out of the field. “I’ve spoken to a number of County Agents across the tobacco belt in the last week," Vann says. "The majority east of Raleigh tell me their growers are finished. West of Raleigh we probably have about two weeks left, but some are done. We’ve got to be 80-85% finished. It appears the weather will hold and frost shouldn’t be an issue." So far this seems like a good crop. "It is my opinion that this season was the one we’ve been looking for. Most farmers in N.C. are reporting a higher yield this season and relatively few devastating pest problems, compared to recent seasons. In addition, the market seems to be strong at the current time. Hopefully, this gives us some momentum and a positive mindset for the 2024 season."
In Virginia, harvest of flue-cured in the Southside is nearly complete, says Stephen Barts, Extension agent in Pittsylvania County, Va. “As of October 11, less than 10 percent remained in the field," he estimated. “The large majority of farmers have finished. There will probably be a little harvesting going on to the end of October, but very little”...The weather conditions were challenging in Virginia this year, he said. “No one ever really plans on weather like we had this year. We had drought early followed by excessive moisture and unseasonably cold temperatures the week of Fathers Day then we got back into drought conditions." The quality has generally been good and in some areas excellent. "Yield is going to be a big issue for us. It will definitely be below average. My guess is that we are going to be 10% or maybe 15% below the five-year average of 2,450 pounds.”
BURLEY
In Tennessee, most farmers have finished harvest or are finishing up now, says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. “Any who haven’t finished are anxious to get this season behind them. We are close to last year’s burley volume. It may come in at four to 4.5 million pounds.” There was some frustration among farmers with ongoing disease problems like mold and angular leafspot.
In Kentucky, harvest appears to be over, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. “I can’t imagine any burley is left in the field. Most of it is in the barn now. Some of our growers have started stripping.” Buying stations will open in November.
DARK & WRAPPER
In the Black Patch of Kentucky and Tennessee, harvest is all but complete, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist for Kentucky and Tennessee. “We might have a little still out in the field, maybe 3%. Most years we go till about October 20, but I don't know if we are going to make it this year. (As of October 11) Bailey estimated that perhaps 97% had been harvested. “We are stripping early crops now,” he said. “Nothing has been marketed yet. That will start next week when we start marketing Connecticut broadleaf”…By the way, the color is looking good on the Connecticut production. “It benefited from being harvested and out of the field before the storms in August…Volume in the Black Patch by type, according to Bailey: - Dark fire-cured will probably be down in volume at least 25% from 2022. USDA has projected all dark fire-cured production this year at 38 million pounds, but Bailey doesn’t think it will amount to more than 30 million pounds.
- Dark air cured volume has been projected by USDA at 12.4 million pounds but Bailey thinks it will probably not be over 10 million;
- Connecticut broadleaf may have been planted on 500 acres in the Black Patch this year and if it did well and we have a 2,000 pound/acre average yield, we may have a million pound production, says Bailey. “Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of wrapper tobacco in some crops so its price will be lower than it might have been.”
| 
