Thursday, March 9, 2023

WHY FARMER NUMBERS KEEP FALLING

 


  • A scene from the first annual meeting of the Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Association which took place January 19 in Bowling Green.




The current grower base for flue-cured tobacco in the United States is simply not sustainable, said Jonathan Renn, a farmer near Winston-Salem, N.C., at the annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina. In a brutally candid “President’s Message” Renn, who is president of the association, said, “Fewer farms growing more acres is not a healthy model for the industry. I am concerned by the large numbers of growers telling TGANC that they have already exited or will come to that determination very soon. Farm foreclosure and massive liquidation of tobacco-specific assets means retirement-aged growers are seeing accumulated net worth vanish. We call on all purchasers to help us reverse these issues and work with us to restore profitability to tobacco farmers.”

 

Having said all that, Renn acknowledged that there is some hope that the upcoming American crop may enjoy some rebound in market demand. “{Although} one company is reportedly making significant reductions in its [flue-cured] contracts, other information suggests planted acres could trend upward this season,” said Renn. But he said that this might be the right occurrence for the wrong reason. “We are convinced that this has more to do with the extremely limited current global inventories than anything else. What we need is real demand and multi-year contracts to offer longer-term stability.”

 

If U.S. flue growers are resigned to grow less tobacco, that tobacco must provide increased returns, said Renn. “The guiding principle of all business is net margins. As growers, we are losing confidence and optimism in long-term sustainability. I know purchasers grow tired of our persistent advocacy to increase prices. But we are an industry in crisis and the only action that will save is to restore profitability. And that, my fellow growers, is always about price.”

 

The problem of contraband: The illicit trade in cigarettes accounts for a large proportion of the total cigarettes market, said Renn. “Whoever is making these non-compliant, not-taxed products isn’t shopping for leaf in places like Wilson, N.C. “If we’re going to preserve our domestic and export markets for the long-term, then governments around the world must crack down illicit trade before it becomes the leading cigarette seller in the world.”

 

Looking for orders from China: It would really help flue-cured growers if China would return to the American market on a substantial basis, said Renn. “TGANC has written directly to the Chinese on many occasions during the five years since to express our appreciation for past business and to encourage in every way that we know how for them to please return to our market,” said Renn. “We held discussions with their representatives this past October while they were here and having dialog with CST.” It is the sense of TGANC that China desires U.S. full-flavor leaf. “We understand CTI resumed purchases in the past season and even issued some direct contracts in 2022,” said Renn. “It is our hope to see them expand intentions in 2023 and beyond.”



Tobacco Associates (TA) will hold its 76th Annual Meeting on Thursday, March 2, 2023, at the Johnston County Agricultural Center, 2736 NC Hwy. 210, Smithfield, NC 27577. from 10 a.m. till Noon. Speakers will include Mercedes Vázquez, CEO of the International Tobacco Growers Association, will report on global leaf markets and trends; Darryl Jayson, Senior VP/Chief Analytics Officer – TMA; Bobby Wellons, Agricultural Marketing Specialist – USDA/ AMS Cotton & Tobacco Programs; and Hank Mozingo, President of Tobacco Associates.



UPCOMING GAP MEETINGS

o Tue Mar 7, 1 pm CST, Russellville, KY.

o Mon Mar 13, 6 pm CST, Glasgow, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 9 am CST, Murray, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 6 pm CST, Lafayette, TN.

o Tue Mar 21, 9 am EST, Quarryville, PA.

o Wed Mar 22, 9 am EST, New Holland, PA. 


Farm Family Life Museum

Friday, February 10, 2023

THE STARS OF THE FARM SHOW: DISEASE-RESISTANT VARIETIES

 

Saturday, February 4, 2023

SHOW TIME APPROACHES

The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina will hold its annual meeting for 2023 on the last day of the Southern Farm Show, as it did last year (above).



The Southern Farm Show is back in Raleigh this week with as much up to date tobacco equipment and supplies as you are likely to see anywhere. Sad to say, there has been still more attrition among the exhibitors since the 2022 Show. But those who are coming look like good ones. Below is list of exhibitors who are seeking the business of tobacco farmers (derived from the Southern Farm Show website). The Show will take place February 1 through February 3 at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission and parking are free. And at the end of the three days, plan on attending the Commissioner's Breakfast at 8 am and the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina meeting at 10 am, both in the Holshouser Building, both on Friday.


SOUTHERN FARM SHOW EXHIBITS OF 

SPECIAL INTEREST TO TOBACCO FARMERS

 

Jim Graham Bldg.  

  • 222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft.
  • 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment. 
  • 302 Hardee by EVH Manufacturing Co. Sprayers. 
  • 704 @8720 Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.


Kerr Scott Bldg. 

  • 1002 TriEst Ag Group. Fumigation supplies. 
  • 1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
  • 1107 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
  • 1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
  • 1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
  • 1120 BeltWide Inc. Transplant technology.    
  • 1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
  • 1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc. Spray equipment. 
  • 1213 H&H Farm Machinery. “Building sprayers your way since 1978.”
  • 1306 Foley Seed and Service. a family owned tobacco seed company.
  • 1311 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.

         

Exposition Bldg.

  • 3127 (& 8609) Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation. Trans-planters/irrigation.
  • 3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.  
  • 3306 Tobacco Growers Association of N.C.
  • 3311 Flame Engineering. Weed control with flame.
  • 3520 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes.
  • 3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
  • 3712 Suretrol Manufacturing. Curing Control. 


Scott Tent

  • 1315 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
  • 7034 (&8012) Coastal AgroBusiness. A full-service agricultural solutions provider.


Outdoors


  • 8204 EquipAg. Tobacco spray equipment. 
  • 8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco and Hemp Machinery. 
  • 8301 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
  • 8516 Mobilift of Burlington, N.C. Forklift sales and service.  
  • 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.


In other tobacco news:


The new Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Assn. got off to a strong start when it held its first annual meeting in Bowling Green, Ky., on January 19. Just short of 100 growers and others gathered at the University Plaza Holiday Inn in Bowling Green, Ky., to track a course for the future of burley and dark. The discussion was fruitful. Executive vice president Joe Cain said he sensed a definite “atmosphere of hope” for the future among the farmers he talked to at the meeting. “Of course, some weren’t as positive as others."


Where the association must go--Al Pedigo of Scottsville, who was elected president at the meeting, said, “The new association is all about bringing producers together to strengthen our efforts to improve the long-term viability and profitability of the tobacco industry for all tobacco producers. We want to do this by banding together to address the critical issues we are facing.” All this is admittedly a tall order. Some of the most important short-term challenges in Kentucky are high input costs, scarce and expensive labor and contracts that need to be written earlier to allow better plan better planning, said Cain.


See you next January. The association’s plan now is to hold its next annual meeting in late January of 2024, probably again in Bowling Green.

 

Officers of the Burley and Dark Tobacco Producer Association for 2023 are: Al Pedigo, Scottsville, chairman; Darrell Varner, Versailles, vice chairman; Penny Greathouse, Midway, secretary; and Jason Wade, Springfield, treasurer.

 

What to do if you can’t find Admire Pro? Supplies of the insecticide Admire Pro are reportedly coming up short. But there are some alternatives, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. “Consider generic imidacloprid products, or materials with other active ingredients, like Platinum, Durivo and Verimark.” The biggest thing, says Vann, is that “growers need to look at the product labels and understand what the appropriate application rates are for each product. There is variation.”

 

It appears that Telone II will be hard to get too. “The major alternative to Telone II will be materials based on chloropicrin (Pic Plus, Pic 100, etc.),” We've been told there's an ample supply of chloropicrin this year.” Telone II (1,3-D soil fumigant) is one of the major nematicides that’s applied in advance of transplanting.


UPCOMING EVENTS


  • The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina annual meeting, 10 a.m., Friday, February 3, Holshouser Building at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh.

  

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS, FEBRUARY AND MARCH

For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All meetings are in English. No charge.

 

GAP TRAINING MEETING DATES

 

o Wed Feb 1, 9 am EST, New Bern, N.C.

o Fri Feb 3, 1:30pm EST, Raleigh, N.C.

o Mon Feb 6, 9 am CST, Dixon, KY.

o Tue Feb 7, 8 am CST, Springfield, TN.

o Wed Feb 8, 9 am CST, Dover, TN.

o  Thu Feb 9, 9 is CST, Owensboro, KY.

o Thu Feb 9, 9 is EST, Yadkinville, N.C.

o Thu Feb 9, 6pm CST, Cadiz, KY.

o  Mon Feb 13, 4:30pm CST, Franklin, KY.

o  Tue Feb 14, 2pm CST, Mayfield, KY.

o  Tue Feb 14, 5pm EST, Abingdon, VA.

o Tue Feb 21, 10 am CST, Hartsville, TN.

o Wed Feb 22, 10 am CST, Hopkinsville, KY.

o  Thu Feb 23, 10 am EST, Mt Sterling, KY.

o Mon Feb 27, 6 pm EST, Madison, IN.

o Tue Feb 28, 9 am EST, Shelbyville, KY.

o Tue Feb 28, 6 pm EST, Cynthiana, KY.

o Wed Mar 1, 9 am EST, Seaman, OH.

o Wed Mar 1, 6 pm EST, Maysville, KY.

o Thu Mar 2, 6 pm EST, Lancaster, KY.

o  Fri Mar 3, 10 am CST, Hardinsburg, KY.

o  Tue Mar 7, 1 pm CST, Russellville, KY.

o Mon Mar 13, 6 pm CST, Glasgow, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 9 am CST, Murray, KY.

o Tue Mar 14, 6pm CST, Lafayette, TN.

o Tue Mar 21, 9 am EST, Quarryville, PA.

o  Wed Mar 22, 9 am EST, New Holland, PA. 


VISIT OUR EXHIBIT AT THE SOUTHERN FARM SHOW, SPACE 1015.

Farm Family Life Museum

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023

A NEW GROWER ASSOCIATION IS BORN IN KENTUCKY

 

The Holiday Inn University Plaza in Bowling Green, KY where the first annual meeting of the new growers association will be held January 19.

The first annual meeting of the Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producer Association will be held at the Holiday Inn University Plaza Hotel and Conference Center in Bowling Green, KY on January 19. This will be a joint meeting with the Council for Burley Tobacco, and it will be held in conjunction with the KY Commodity Conference. There is no fee to attend, but you should reserve a seat at lunch. Email KYTobaccoGrowers@ outlook.com.


What you will find in Bowling Green: A program designed to help tobacco growers take control of their future. It will begin at 9:30 a.m. Thursday morning with presentations by Will Snell, Ky. Extension ag economist, and Daniel Green, chief executive officer of Burley Stabilization Corporation on the current tobacco economy. Andy Bailey and Robert Pearce, both Kentucky Extension agronomists, will catch you up on research that can make a difference on your farm. There will be talks on GAP Connections and Federal Crop insurance, among other subjects, and the program will conclude a discussion by a farmer panel made up of Graham Boyd, executive VP, and Jonathan Renn, president, of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina; Darrell Varner, president, of the Council For Burley Tobacco, and Al Pedigo, president of the Burley and Dark Producer Association. Adjournment should take place at 3.


The Annual Breakfast with the Commissioner will be held on Friday, February 3, in the Holshouser Building at the State Fairgrounds in Raleigh NC during the Southern Farm Show. Tickets can be purchased for $35 each at www.eventbrite.com/e/18th-annual-breakfast-with-the-commissioner-tickets-465942104377. Call Michael Rhodes, Executive Director, Tobacco Farm Life Museum, at 919-284-3431.

 

The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina will hold its 2023 annual meeting at 10 a.m. Friday, February 3, in conjunction with the Southern Farm Show. The venue will be the Holshouser Building at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. It will end with lunch around 12. There is no charge, and registration is not required.

 

The Southern Farm Show will take place February 1 through February 3 at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission is free. A list of tobacco-related exhibitors will appear in in the next TFN issue.


In other tobacco news:


Some products are short already, according to the N.C. Extension tobacco team. Of most concern:

·      Admire Pro (imidacloprid), a key insecticide for early season flea beetle, aphid and thrips suppression as well as suppression of tomato spotted wilt virus.

·      Telone II (1,3-D soil fumigant), one of the major nematicides that’s applied in advance of transplanting.

There are alternatives to both. Watch this space for suggestions in the next issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter.


The problem may get bigger. “Supply chain issues continue to plague us. The downstream ramifications have a lot folks worried about cost.”

 

Tight burley supplies made for a promising season one year ago, but declining margins and unfavorable weather led to lower production again, says Will Snell, University of Kentucky agricultural economist. The value of Kentucky’s tobacco crop in 2022 may end up at around $250 million.


A sign of the times: Dark tobacco may prove to have accounted for half or more of the total value of Kentucky’s tobacco crop last year. “Dark tobacco continues to benefit from stable smokeless tobacco sales coupled with virtually non-existent foreign competition,” says Snell.


A better price, please! say Brazilians. The Brazilian tobacco growers association (AFUBRA) are in price negotiations this week, and they are determined that their price should go up. Benício Werner, president of AFUBRA, said before the price meeting, “What we hear from the main market researchers is that…it will still be a year of demand (in 2033). We are noticing that instead of having a 1% to 3% drop in consumption, the drop (in 2022) was only 0.2%, indicating that cigarette factories will need more tobacco.” In addition, the good quality of the production ought to be reflected in better prices. “Most (of our) farmers are producing the quality tobacco that the international market is asking for. We need to observe this because a country that exports 85% of its tobacco must be concerned” with quality.

 

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS IN JANUARY.

For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All meetings are in English. No charge.

 

Tue, Jan 24, 9 am EST. Williamston, NC

Wed., Jan 25, 9 am EST. Louisburg, NC

Thu. Jan 26, 9 am EST. Greenville, NC

Mon. Jan 30, 9 am EST. Lillington, NC

Tue. Jan 31, 9 am EST. Goldsboro, NC 

Tuesday, January 3, 2023

THE OUTLOOK FOR TOBACCO IN 2023

 

A foreign cigarette factory lies inactive waiting for more leaf. But activity has been slowed by short crops in almost all countries exporting cigarette leaf.

International Leaf Markets: The shortfall of supply (all types) has been estimated at 1 million kilograms, says Iqbal Lambat, c.e.o. of the leaf dealer Star Tobacco International and one of the most astute observers of the world tobacco scene. "The shortfall has been driven primarily by short crops in most origins and by a sharp increase in leaf inventory holding by the major multinationals," Lambat says. Acute shortages were experienced in Brazil, Argentina, Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan. Prices for international tobaccos have experienced an increase of at least 30% in 2022 vs. 2021. But it may not be enough. "This shortage is expected to continue in 2023 and most likely 2024 too as farmers are unable to cope with the steep increase in the cost of fertilizers and energy," says Lampat. "The higher prices in the international markets reflect 'the new norm' and a reduction is not foreseen in the future."


Flue-cured: A plan for flue-cured growers in 2023-- "Plant as many contracts as you can obtain, but I don't suggest overplanting," says Rick Smith, c.e.o. of Independent Leaf Tobacco Co. in Wilson. "I don't see contract prices going up much." The 2022 crop was short, but considering the weather problems it faced, it was just about miraculous that so much was usable. "It seemed that every bale that made it to the market was bought by somebody. And it was surprising that there was very little low-grade tobacco in this crop." Don't expect the same experiences next season.


Burley and Dark: Despite current demand expectations, (especially for burley), Kentucky farmers will have an opportunity again to increase acreage in 2023 because of tight supplies, says Will Snell. Kentucky Extension agricultural economist. “[But whether they do or not] will depend on contract prices and the profit opportunities available from alternative ag enterprises.” Labor costs as always will be a big factor. “The H2A wage rate is forecast to increase from $13.89/hour to $14.26/hour, putting additional upward pressure on production costs amidst stagnant yields,” says Snell. Without better profit expectations, there will likely be more attrition in the number of farms growing tobacco in Kentucky in 2023. That could cause problems for tobacco companies attempting to boost inventories, he added.


Kentucky’s tobacco production (all types) is forecast by USDA to be 10% lower in the crop now being marketed.

  • Burley production was projected down 21%.
  • Dark fire-cured production rebounded nearly 9% as a major buyer increased contract volumes by more than 50%, following an abrupt cut two years ago.
  • Dark air production was relatively flat.
  •  Cigar tobacco acres declined.

Demand for U.S. burley continues to fall as less expensive foreign leaf has induced U.S. burley exports to plummet while the burley import share remains relatively high. 



First state tobacco meeting of the year: The GA-FL GAP Tobacco Training for 2023 will take place on January 2, 9:30 am to 10 am, UGA Tifton Campus Conference Center. Ends with lunch. Free but please register. Call J. Michael Moore at 229 392 6424. 

 

GAP TRAINING MEETINGS IN JANUARY.


For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All in English. No charge.


Fri., Jan 6, 10 am EST. Marion, SC

Mon, Jan 9, 9 am EST. Wilson, NC

Tue, Jan 10, 9 am EST. Yanceyville, NC

Wed, Jan 11, 9 am EST. Rocky Mount, NC

Thu., Jan 12, 9 am EST. Smithfield, NC

Thu, Jan 12, 4 pm EST. Chatham, VA

Fri., Jan 13, 9 am EST. Blackstone, VA

Tue, Jan 24, 9 am EST. Williamston, NC

Wed., Jan 25, 9 am EST. Louisburg, NC

Thu. Jan 26, 9 am EST. Greenville, NC

Mon. Jan 30, 9 am EST. Lillington, NC

Tue. Jan 31, 9 am EST. Goldsboro, NC



Book update: I am very happy to report that I have received an unexpected number of orders for my two history books--Burley & Beyond which centers on Kentucky and Ohio, and A History of Burley Tobacco in East Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina, which revolves around burley in those three states. I very quickly ran out of the copies of both that I have on hand, but I have found that more are stored at one of our printers, and I will retrieve them. If they don't have enough to fill all your orders, I will print more. I hope to have all your orders prepared and mailed by the first day of the Farm Show, or soon thereafter...Now, I have an embarrassing admission: In the last news item on this subject, I inadvertently left out the street name in the address I asked you to send orders to. If you mailed an order to that “address”, would you email your order to me again. Don’t send a check; I will invoice you once this is all straightened out. And if you would still like to place an order, please don’t send it by mail. Send an email instead, That address is chrisbickers@gmail.com. And thanks to all for your interest.

VISIT OUR EXHIBIT AT THE SOUTHERN FARM SHOW, SPACE 1015.

Farm Family Life Museum