WHAT LIES AHEAD IN 2015?

Most buyers expect 2014 burley production to be less than the current USDA estimate of 211.5 million pounds. See below. FLUE-CURED "The crop this past season was not a vintage one, but it was very useable," says Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco Co., Wilson, N.C. "It was not quite as as big as we thought--I am saying 525 million pounds. There was more in the fields, but the hurricane, wet weather and frost lowered production considerably, especially in the Old Belt." As far as he knows, there was enough to fill all contracts, but there is not a lot of excess inventory. He estimates the average price for tobacco sold under contract at around $2.08 or $2.09 per pound. "Some uncontracted tobacco sold at very reasonable prices and has moved right into the trade," he says. What price in 2015? "I expect the price for flue-cured will not be down much, and it may be flat," Smith says. "Contract acreage might be down around five percent. There is going to be some reluctance to load up here since Zimbabwe had excess leaf, Brazil had excess leaf [in 2014] and the new Brazil market is opening." Increased plantings of uncontracted flue-cured seem likely. BURLEY World production increased 12 percent in 2014, following a 22 percent larger crop in 2013, with most of the growth coming in low quality filler tobacco from Africa, according to Universal Leaf. Will Snell, Kentucky Extension ag economist, said that U.S. burley disappearance (domestic use plus exports) was relatively stable from 2008-2012 at around 210 to 220 million pounds but fell to 200 million pounds in 2013. It will likely fall farther in 2014 responding to both lower leaf exports and slumping sales of domestic cigarettes.Most buyers expect 2014 burley production to be less than the current USDA estimate of 211.5 million pounds, but it will probably still be more than anticipated use. The result? More critical grading and prices that retreat from their record high of $2.06 per pound for the 2013 crop. DARK The 2014 U.S. dark fire cured crop is expected to total around 50 million pounds, while the dark air-cured crop should total around 15 million pounds, says Snell. Both are just slightly above the levels of the previous year. The current supply/demand balance for dark tobaccos indicates relatively strong leaf prices for the current crop. But the expansion in smokeless tobacco consumption appears to be slowing.  * * *  Reports from the field: All burley delivered to the Big Burley auction warehouse in Lexington, Ky., so far has been good, says owner Darby Montgomery. But that could change. "We are just now [after Christmas] seeing frozen tobacco begin to arrive." Prices at Montgomery's auctions have been lower than last year, with a top price of around $1.50. Volume may have been affected by hail that struck several parts of the state late in the season. "Some farms suffered a total loss." Montgomery isn't quite ready to estimate the burley crop size, but he is thinking lower rather than higher. "It definitely was no bumper crop." Hail hurts burley yields in Tennessee: At the UT AgResearch Center in Greeneville, a late hailstorm lowered a very good yield to just good. "The hail knocked holes in the leaves," says Rob Ellis, director of the center. "During harvest, we saw a lot more leaves on the ground than we would normally expect to see. We lost some yield." But the center's crop suffered no damage as a result of the intense cold of the weekend of November 1--harvest had been completed well before that date. No burley auction in N.C....yet. Dennis White, owner of the Old Belt auction warehouse in Rural Hall, N.C., had planned to hold several burley auctions in December, says he never got enough leaf to justify a burley-only sale. But he hasn't given up hope. "I am getting calls," he says. "If I get enough burley, I will have a sale, probably in January." He has sold some burley--maybe 25,000 to 30,000 pounds--in the course of his flue-cured sales. Many growers with excess burley are apparently holding on to it in hopes that the price will go up in the New Year, White says. The Southern Farm Show will be held February 4 to February 6 at theNorth Carolina State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, N.C. Among the events held in connection with the show will be the annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina on February 6. Watch future issues of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter for more information on the show including a list of exhibitors with tobacco-related products.  The Council for Burley Tobacco will hold its annual meeting on Saturday, January 17, during the Agriculture Industry Trade Show at the Owensboro Convention Center in conjunction with the 2015 Tobacco Expo. The meeting will take place at 12 p.m. in West Ballroom E. The annual meeting of the Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative Association will take place immediately afterward in the same location, starting at 1 p.m. A GAP meeting will be held there earlier that day (see below). Editor's note: I hope you have enjoyed this issues of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive it regularly or need to change an address, please send a subscription request to chrisbickers@gmail.com. For more information, you can email me at that address or call me at 919-789-4631. Thanks--Chris Bickers UPCOMING GAP RECERTIFICATION MEETINGS KENTUCKY  Burley January 17, 8:30 a.m. Owensboro Convention Center, 501 W Second St., Owensboro, Ky. Contact Bob Pearce at 859 257 511 or rpearce@ email.uky.edu. This meeting is being held in conjunction with the 2015 Tobacco Expo. January 22, (Two sessions) 1 p.m. & 6 p.m. Marion County Extension Office, 416 Fairgrounds Rd., Lebanon, Ky. Marion County. Contact (270) 692-2421. January 27, 10 a.m. Woodford County Extension Office, 184 Beasley Road, Versailles, Ky. Woodford County. Contact (859) 873-4601 or adam.probst@uky.edu. January 30, 1:30 a.m. Henry County Extension Office, 2151 Campbellsburg Rd., New Castle, Ky. Henry County. Contact (502) 845-2811 or smoore@uky.edu. January 30, 9:30 a.m. Shelby County Extension Office, 1117 Frankfort Rd., Shelbyville, Ky. Shelby County. Contact (502) 633-4593 or corinne.belton@uky.edu.  February 3, 6 p.m. Lincoln County Extension Office, 104 Metker Trail, Stanford, Ky. Lincoln County. Contact (606) 365-2459 ordgrigson@uky.edu. February 12, 6 p.m. Montgomery County Extension Office, 106 East Locust St., Mt Sterling, Ky. Montgomery County. Contact (859)-498-8741 or rcatchen@uky.edu. February 19, 12 p.m. Green County Extension Office, 298 Happyville Rd., Greensburg, Ky. Green County. Contact (270)-932-5311 orricky.arnett@uky.edu. February 19, 5 p.m. RECC Building, 2405 North Main St., Jamestown, Ky. Russell County. Contact (270) 866-4477 orchelsey.pickens@uky.edu.  February 24, 6 p.m. Maysville Community College, 1755 U.S. 68, Maysville, Ky. Maysville County. Contact (606) 564-6808 or mcampbel@uky.edu. February 25, 10 a.m. Breckinridge County Extension Office, 1377 Hwy 261 So., Hardinsburg, Ky. Breckinridge County. Contact (270) 756-2182 or cmhinton@uky.edu. lindie.huffman@uky.edu. March 10, 6 p.m. Allen County Extension Office, 200 East Main St., Scottsville, Ky. Allen County. Contact (270) 237-3146 or sosborne@uky.edu. March 10, 6 p.m. Warren County Extension Office, 3132 Nashville Rd., Bowling Green, Ky. Warren County. Contact (270) 842-1681 or jcoles@uky.edu. March 12, 6:30 p.m. Wolfe County Extension Office, North Washington St., Campton, Ky. Wolfe County. Contact (606) 668-3712 or daniel.wilson@uky.edu. March 19, 6:30 p.m. Owen County Extension Office, 265 Ellis Hwy., Owenton, Ky. Owen County. Contact (502) 484-5703 or steve.musen@uky.edu.  Dark January 20, 6 p.m. . City-County Park Building, Filter Plant Rd., Franklin, Ky. Contact 270-586-4484 or jrphil0@uky.edu. February 24, 2 p.m. McLean County Extension Office, 335 West 7th St., Calhoun, Ky. Contact 270-273-3690 or cary.hicks@uky.edu.  February 26, 2 p.m.Logan County Extension Office, 255 John Paul Rd., Russellville, Ky. Contact 270-726-6323 or leann.martin@uky.edu. TENNESSEE Burley February 3, 8 a.m. Robertson Co. Fairgrounds Bldg., Hwy. 41,  Springfield, Tn. (Burley) Contact 615-384-7936 or pehart@utk.edu. Dark February 10, 5 p.m. Montgomery Co. Extension Office, 1030A Cumberland Heights Rd., Clarksville, Tn. (Dark). Contact 931-648-5725 or jevans1@utk.edu. INDIANA (All burley) February 23, 6 p.m. Switzerland County Extension Office, 708 West Seminary St., Vevay, In. Switzerland County. Contact (812) 427-3152 or keweaver@purdue.edu.  March 9, 1 p.m. Orange County Community Center, 1075 Sandy Hook Rd., Paoli, In. Orange County. Contact (812) 723-7107 or  berg31@purdue.edu. OHIO (All burley) March 11, (Two sessions) 10 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. Southern Hills Career & Tech Ctr. Board Ofc., 9193 Hamer Rd., Georgetown, Oh. Brown County. Contact 937-544-2339 or rowe.316@osu.edu. March 16, 6:30 a.m. Manchester High School, 130 Wayne Frye Dr., Manchester, Oh. Adams County. Contact 937-544-2339 or  rowe.316@osu.edu.  March 16, 1:30. Frisch's Restaurant, 11157 St. Rt. 41, West Union, Oh. Adams County. Contact 937-544-2339 or rowe.316@osu.edu. NORTH CAROLINA (All flue-cured) January 6, 9:30 a.m. Wilson County Extn. Office, 1806 Goldsboro St., Wilson, N.C. Contact:  252-237-0111 or  norman_harrell @ncsu.edu. January 8. 10 a.m. Johnston County Agricultural Ctr., 2736 N.C. 210, Smithfield, N.C. Contact: 919-989-5380 or  bryant_spivey@ncsu.edu. January 9 (Two sessions) 7:30 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. 1450 Fairchild Rd., Winston Salem, N.C. Forsyth County. Contact 336-703-2857 or tim_hambrick@ncsu.edu. January 12, 9 a.m.  2420 Tramway Rd., Sanford, N.C. Lee County.Contact 919-775-5624 or kdtungat@ncsu.edu. January 13, 10 a.m. Martin County Farmers Market, 4001 West Main St., Williamston, N.C. Contact: al_cochran@ncsu.edu. or 257-789-4370. January 14, 10 a.m. Farmers Market, 1006 Peachtree St., Rocky Mount, N.C. Contact: 252-904-8189 or  charlie_tyson@ncsu.edu. January 15, 9 a.m. Pitt County Agricultural Center, 403 Government Circle, Ste. 2, Greenville, N.C. Contact 252-902-1802 or mitch_smith@ ncsu.edu. January 20, 10 a.m. Granville County Expo and Convention Center 4185 U.S. 15, Oxford, N.C. Contact 919-496-3344 or charles_mitchell@ncsu.edu. Granville, Franklin, Vance, and Warren Counties. January 22, 9 a.m. Kings BBQ, 405 E. New Bern Rd., Kinston, N.C. Contact 252-527-2191 or  walter_adams@ncsu.edu. Lenoir County. January 26, 10 a.m. Sampson County Agri Expo Center, 414 WarsawRd., Clinton, N.C. Sampson County. Contact: 910-592-7161 or della_king@ncsu.edu. January 27, 10 a.m. Cumberland and Harnett Counties Meeting, 126 Alexander Dr., Lillington, N.C. Contact 910-893-7530 or brian_parrish @ncsu.edu. January 29, 9 a.m. Caswell County Meeting. 536 Main St.,  Yanceyville, N.C. Contact 336-570-6740 or dcdabbs @ncsu.edu. February 6, 1 p.m. Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. Annual Meeting, N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. Contact 919-513-0904 or matthew_vann@ncsu.edu. GEORGIA (Flue-cured) February 16, 12:45 p.m. Tifton Campus Conference Center, Small Auditorium, RDC Rd., Tifton, Ga. Tift County. Contact 229 392 6424 or jmmoore@uga.edu. SOUTH CAROLINA (Flue-cured) February 17, 12:45 p.m. Woodhaven (behind Jimmy B's Restaurant, across from Auto Zone), 1963 Highway 76, Marion, S.C. Marion County. Contact 229 392 6424 or jmmoore@uga.edu. VIRGINIA (Flue-cured)  January 20, 4 p.m. Olde Dominion Ag Complex, 19783 U.S. Hwy. 29, Chatham, Va. Pittsylvania County. Contact 434-292-5331 or threed@exchange.vt.edu. January 21, 4 p.m. Meherrin River Hunt Club, 435 Dry Creek Rd. Baskerville, Va. Mecklenburg. Contact 434-292-5331 or threed@exchange.vt.edu. January 22, 8:30 a.m. Southern Piedmont Center, 2375 Darvills Rd., Blackstone, Va. Nottoway. Contact 434-292-5331 or threed@exchange.vt.edu. January 28, 10 a.m. Scottsburg Volunteer Fire Department, 3050 Scottsburg Rd., Scottsburg, Va. Halifax (Flue) Contact 434-292-5331 or threed@exchange.vt.edu. January 12, 10 a.m. Midway Baptist Church, 2595 Midway Rd., Phenix, Va. Charlotte. Contact 434-292-5331 or  threed@exchange.vt.edu. ADVERTISING FARMERS TOBACCO WAREHOUSE  209 Harding St., Danville, Ky. PH: 859-236-4932 Full-service burley warehouse Jerry Rankin, Owner  Opening Tuesday, November 25 at 9:30 a.m. Call for information.