COLD NIGHTS SLOW SETTING

Transplanting gets under way across the tobacco belt. Flue-cured growers in North Carolina have transplanted in the ballpark of 15 to 20 percent of the crop, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "That is probably all in the East and southeastern part of the state. Little has been planted in the Middle and Old Belts. It has been too cold and way too wet." Part of the problem has been night-time temperatures that have often been close to freezing, says Vann. "We need night-time temperatures of 60+ degrees, and we have not been close to that. But there has been no flooding. We are still good on time: Even if we didn't get most of the crop out till late April it would not be a concern." He estimated that statewide, the crop is a week or two behind. East of Wilson, N.C., the crop may be later than that, says a leaf dealer. "To my eyes, we are a good three weeks late," he told TFN. "I have seen some tobacco get frosted twice. It wasn't killed, but it was held back." A lot is going into the ground now. "We should see 425 to 450 million pounds total of American flue-cured." This was the best transplant season in Georgia in recent memory, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, and the crop looks good in Georgia and Florida. But in South Carolina, heavy wind and rains considerably slowed completion of tobacco setting, says Rusty Skipper, Extension agent in Horry County. A few plants infected with tomato spotted wilt virus have turned up in Georgia, primarily in fields that were planted very early or in fields where Admire and Actigard were not used, Moore says. "There seems to be a lower presence of thrips this year." Neonicotinoids are taking a lot of heat over alleged environmental problems, with a ban on outdoor spraying likely soon in the EU. If that sentiment spreads here, Admire could certainly be threatened. That would be a problem, Moore says, because none of the other alternatives are as effective in the suppression of tomato spotted wilt virus. What effect will the exit of AOI have on the burley market? Daniel Green, c.e.o. of the Burley Stabilization cooperative, thinks acreage in Tennessee, the most affected state will at most be 10,000 acres and maybe less. For all burley states, he estimates 65,000 acres. Little  burley has been transplanted so far. Dark down: An early production estimate of the 2018 fire-cured crop provided by Hail & Cotton leaf dealer indicated that about 50 million pounds will be the volume,1.5 million pounds less than a year ago. The acreage for this type is projected at 15,625, 1,000 acres less than last year. The same estimate for dark air-cured tobacco is 14 million pounds, about 1.2 million pounds less than in 2017. Acreage is projected down 14 percent--714 acres to 5,000. The effect Chinese tariffs might have on American tobacco is very difficult to estimate, but whatever the effect, it won't be good, the dealer says. "Even if the tariffs are slow developing, they could cause us some losses just because of the uncertainty," he says. "The situation seems certain to benefit Brazil." Speaking of Brazil...The current flue-cured crop, just harvested and now being marketed, appears to be heading to 1.28 million pounds, about 77 million pounds less that in 2017, according to the leaf dealer Hail & Cotton. Brazil also grows burley, and the current crop is estimated at 154 million pounds, down 24 million pounds from 2017. DATES TO REMEMBER:  The Georgia-Florida Tobacco Tour will take place June 11-13, beginning with a 7 p.m. Kick-Off Supper at Brown Lantern Restaurant, Live Oak, Florida, June 11. ADVERTISING