ADDING UP THE DAMAGE FROM DORIAN ON TOBACCO

Buyers bid for tobacco at an auction in Wilson, N.C. File photo by the editor. In South Carolina, only 10 to 15 percent of the  crop was still in the field when Dorian arrived on September 6, says William Hardee,  S.C. area Extension agronomy agent for Horry, Marion and Dillon Counties. "There was not much blowing off of leaves, but there was a lot of overripening due to the plant's production of ethylene." Farmers tried to harvest and barn what they could, but Hardee predicts that three quarters of the tobacco that was in the field wil be abandoned.  In North Carolina, leaf is deteriorating quickly in areas struck by Dorian. Farmers are harvesting as fast as they can. One observer predicted that all harvestable to-bacco will be out of the field by October 1, several weeks earlier than it has in recent years. "We needed four or five weeks," said our source. The worst damage was east and south of Ral-eigh. There was some damage in the northeast but considerably less.  In the Piedmont, there was hardly any effect of Dorian, says Dennis White, owner of Old Belt Tobacco Sales, Rural Hall, N.C. "As a matter of fact, we still need water." He estimates that harvest is half complete in his area. 50 million pounds loss in N.C.? The Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina estimated the crop loss caused by Dorian in N.C. at 50 million pounds. That is based on the estimate that 60 percent of the crop remained in the field when the storm arrived and that 25 to 30 percent was destroyed or rendered unmarketable. The effect on the market? "The demand is soft--there is too much production world wide, and our U.S. leaf is challenged by the strong dollar relative to global options," said the statement from TGANC. "We very likely had over produced our domestic acres already, so the 50 million destroyed in the storm brings us closer to actual demand. That isn't to say  we would not have sold the entire larger crop, but at what prices?"  Auction report: Leaf grades have not begun arriving in any volume at the flue-cured auction warehouses, and there has been grower disappointment with prices bid for some lugs. Cutters have reportedly sold fairly well. There is optimism that any high-quality tobacco offered for sale from here on may command good prices as a result of the Dorian damage. September Crop Report--Production estimates continue downward: In a survey completed before Dorian arrived, USDA predicted in its September Crop Report that flue-cured production would total 304 million pounds, down three percent from last month and 10 percent from 2018. Burley production was expected to total 96.0 million pounds, down nine percent from the last month and four percent from last year. Among the individual states, with percentage change from 2018: FLUE-CURED·         North Carolina, 236 million pounds, down six percent.·         Virginia, 33 million pounds  down 21 percent.·        Georgia, 18 million pounds down 33 percent.·         South Carolina, 17 million pounds, down 23 percent.  BURLEY Kentucky, 81 million pounds, up two percent. Tennessee, 6.4 million pounds, down 29 percent. Pennsylvania, 6 million pounds,  down 31 percent. Virginia, 1.26 million pounds,  down 16 percent. North Carolina, 640, 000 pounds, down 43 percent. OTHER TYPES Fire-cured, 46.7 million pounds, down 20 percent. Dark air-cured, 28 million pounds, up 7.7 percent. Pennsylvania seedleaf, 5 million pounds, down nine percent.  Southern Maryland/Pennsylvania, 2.2 million pounds, down 28 percent.