Thursday, October 24, 2019

PRICES WEAK AS MARKET WINDS DOWN


Buyers bid on leaf at American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C., at an auction on October 16.  Photo by the Editor.
Auction sales of flue-cured tobacco were in extreme doldrums in October. At a sale at the American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C., on October 16, the top price seemed to be around $1.20 a pound, and that was for some very good tobacco. A lot of the crop appeared to have been sold at $.90 a pound and some sold as low as $.75, which would obviously not cover the cost of production. 

Prices are too low, said Rick Smith, president of Independent Leaf Tobacco and one of the buyers at the sale. "I don't know how farmers are making any money the way things are. Some are going to have to think about leaving the crop. I know tobacco farmers aren't quitters but with no demand, this is a losing battle." 

Harvest is over in East N.C., South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. But some flue-cured is still in the field in the Piedmont area of western N.C. and perhaps some in Vir-ginia. 

The USDA's final proj-ection of crop vol-ume  for 2019 was that flue-cured will be down 15 percent in volume, in large part because of dry weather throughout the season and also the cat-astrophic effect of Hurricane Dorian in eastern North Carolina and South Carolina. But the burley crop was projected only eight percent downward, mainly because of good conditions that lead to a good yield in Kentucky.

Following are USDA's October projections for each of the types. For flue-cured and burley, projections by state are included.
FLUE-CURED
  • North Carolina--212.4 million pounds, down 15.3 percent from last season. 
  • Virginia--30 million pounds, down 28.5 percent from last season. 
  • Georgia--18 million pounds, down 24.2 percent from last season. 
  • South Carolina--13 million pounds, down 38.5 percent from last season. 
  • All U.S. flue-cured--274 million pounds, down 24.1 percent from last season.
BURLEY
  • Kentucky--77.9 million pounds, down 2.6 percent from last season. 
  • Tennessee--6 million pounds, down 33.3 percent from last season. 
  • Pennsylvania--6 million pounds, down 31.8 percent from last season.
  • Virginia--1.2 million pounds, down 16 percent from last season. 
  • North Carolina--0.64 million pounds, down 42 percent from last season. 
  • All U.S. burley--91.8 million pounds, down 8.5 percent from last season.
OTHER TYPES
  • Fire-cured--47.4 million pounds, down 19.5 percent from last season. 
  • Dark air-cured--27.6 million pounds, up 3.7 percent from last season. 
  • Pennsylvania seedleaf--5 million pounds, down 8.3 percent from last season. 
  • Southern Maryland--2.2 million pounds, down 28.5 percent from last season.   
ALL TOBACCO--448 million pounds, down 16 percent from last season.

OVERSEAS REPORT

In Malawi, our major competitor in burley, very dry weather reduced production, then the crop encountered a lackluster market, according to a leaf dealer. An average price (in US$/kilogram) of $1.32 had been achieved by the close of the market, down from $1.56 in 2018. There were an exceptional number of no sales which were allocated to the trade  at a very low average price of $0.50 per kilogram. Total volume sold was nearly 138 million kilograms, down from 164 million in 2018. 

Still beating a billion: Brazil flue-cured volume in 2020 is projected at 1.3 billion pounds, down slightly from 2019 but still dominating world pro-duction of the type. Brazilian burley production is estimated at 121 million pounds, down 15 percent from 2019. Transplanting of both types is nearly complete. Source: Hail & Cotton International Group.
Zimbabwe pounds up: The 2019 Zimbabwe flue-cured crop, just marketed, is estimated to have been 571.6 million pounds in volume, up 2.7 percent from the year before. The price was 2.02 per kilogram, down from 30 percent from the year before.

DATES TO REMEMBER
December 5, 9 a.m.-noon. N.C. Tobacco Day, Johnston County Extension Center,  Smith-field, N.C. Lunch will follow the program.

20 comments:

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