THERE IS OPTIMISM--BUT JUST A LITTLE--OVER SALES TO CHINA

Signing up--Lauren Walker, compliance and assessment coordinator for GAP Connections, helps farmers register for their annual training session in best agricultural practices. This session took place at the Southern Farm Show in Raleigh on February 7 right after the annual meeting of the Tobacco Grower Association of N.C. About 20 more sessions remain this year (see below for dates and locations). For the first time in a while, you could find optimism in a group of farmers about the resumption of leaf sales to China, The meeting in question was the annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina (TGANC) in Raleigh on February 7. Much of the improved outlook was spurred by the news that American tobacco is included on the list of agricultural products in Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade agreement. That doesn't guarantee any new sales but sets the stage for them. China on his mind. A case in point--N.C. Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler told TGANC that he goes to bed thinking about China, dreams about China while he is sleeping and thinks about China when he wakes up. But those dreams may improve soon--he is guardedly optimistic about sales. now that we know that tobacco is eligible to be included in Phase I sales. "We think we will get China back on this market," he said. To meet its $40 billion commitment in purchases of U.S. food, agricultural and seafood products China will need to increase purchases of many products, said Blake Brown, N.C. Extension agricultural economist. It may well choose to buy our flue-cured tobacco. Brown noted that despite the break in purchasing, the China Tobacco International (North America) office in Cary, N.C., near Raleigh, has never been closed. We must do everything possible to restore trade with China, added Steve Griffin, president of TGANC. "We are a shrinking player in an increasingly globalized industry," he said. "The number of major cigarette manufacturers can be counted on two hands. The companies are very motivated to find least-cost ingredients, even the most significant one--tobacco leaf it-self." There is too much tobacco being grown, said Griffin. "Worse, it is sold too cheap."   Farmers are not the only members of the tobacco community that are worried about China. Pieter Sikkel, chairman, president and c.e.o at Pyxus, parent company of Alliance One International, said in an announcement on February 10 that "While we are pleased that tobacco is included on the list of agricultural products in Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade agreement, additional steps are needed to restart leaf exports from the United States to China." The coronavirus outbreak is also a concern, and Pyxus-Alliance One is closely monitoring the possible negative impact on leaf trade of the disease.   In other issues addressed at the TGANC meeting: --The procurement cycle for leaf has become a growing problem for farmers, said Griffin. "In less than 30 days, a majority of growers need to begin seeding greenhouses for the new crop. Yet to date, only one tobacco contracting company has executed contracts. A second has at least given the grower base an expectation of volumes and may sign contracts in the near future. But much of the procurement need remains unknown." Reform is strongly needed, he believes.   --A frightening prospect: Too many family farms are exiting the business. "Some [are] by choice and some due to circumstances," said Griffin. "One way or another, this trend needs our full attention. I call on the industry to help slow the erosion of demand for U.S. leaf by making a strong commitment to include more of it in the final product while at the same time protecting the price."   In other tobacco news: How much tobacco will be grown this year? The first estimate of 2020 production was released by Universal Leaf on February 4. Flue-Cured--The world total is estimated at 8,064 million green pounds, down two percent from the previous season. Brazil's crop is estimated at 1,212 million green pounds, down eight percent from last season, while the USA's crop is estimated at 300 million green pounds, up eight percent from last season. The PRC flue-cured crop is estimated at 3,842 million green pounds, equal to last season. Burley--The world total is estimated down seven percent at 1,128 million green pounds. Brazil's burley crop is estimated at 125 million green pounds, down slightly from last year, while the USA crop is estimated at 81 million green pounds. The PRC burley crop is estimated at 15 million green pounds, down 40 percent from last season. Oriental--The world total is up nearly six percent at 374 million green pounds. Dark Air-Cured--The world total is 273 million green pounds, roughly the same as last year. See our next issue in about 10 days for more news from the Southern Farm Show and the TGANC annual meeting. GAP Meetings in February and March   Feb 10, 9 am, Calhoun, KY Feb 11, 10 am, Dixon, KY Feb 12, 10 am, Phenix, VA Feb 17, 6 pm, Cadiz, KY Feb 19, 1 pm, West Union, OH Feb 19, 7 pm, Gallipolis, OH Feb 24, 10 am, Kingsport, TN Feb 25, 10 am, Hopkinsville, KY Feb 26, 10 am, Owensboro, KY Feb 27,  10 am, Lexington, KY Feb 27, 5:30 pm, Central City, KY Mar 2, 6 pm, Owensboro, KY  Mar 3, 6 pm, Madison IN  Mar 3, 12 pm, Russellville, KY Mar 4, 12:30 pm, Tifton GA Mar 5, 10 am, Marion SC Mar 5, 6 pm, Greeneville TN Mar 10, 1 pm, Murray KY Mar 16, 6 pm, Lafayette, TN Mar 25, 6 pm. Scottsville, KY Mar 30, 6:30 pm. Owenton, KY

Bickers Editing Service, 903-9 Shellbrook Ct., Raleigh, NC 27609