A FLUE-CURED AUCTION IN RURAL HALL, NC.

A MID-NOVEMBER FINISH FOR FLUE AUCTIONS?

There are several more weeks to go for flue-cured auctions, says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager for the American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C. "I could see us holding sales until mid November or maybe later," he says. He says the volume at sales at his warehouse continues to be good. "Volume is certainly not tailing off at this point." Prices are generally good and buyers seem pleased with the quality. 

REPORTS FROM THE FIELD 

FLUE-CURED 

North Carolina--There is still a little leaf left out in the field, though not as much as was feared a month or more ago, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "But it's still more than we would like to see on the fourteenth of October." There was some concern earlier that frost might affect this crop, but that seems unlikely now, at least not on a large scale on a large scale. "So much has been harvested that there is not a lot left to be damaged," he says...Vann thinks North Carolinians are looking at average or better yields statewide this year. The Old Belt may do a little better, he says. "It had dry weather and heat like the East, but I believe the impacts were less severe, partly because the crop was planted a little later and could take advantage of timely rain"...Good news: Tropical Storm Ian did little damage to the N.C. crop when it passed through on October 6, Vann says. 

Virginia--Growers are close to finishing flue-cured harvest. "There might be five percent left in the field, if that much," says David Reed, Virginia Extension tobacco specialist. "This appears to be a good crop, with a better yield than expected and reasonably good quality. But we had significant losses to diseases, particularly black shank"...Growers will be looking anywhere for ways to reduce cost of production. "The price has just not kept up," Reed says. South Carolina, Georgia and Florida have finished harvest. 

BURLEY AND DARK 

Kentucky--Most of the tobacco in the state--about 96 percent--has been cut, according to NASS, and 20 percent is stripped. Kentucky experienced well below normal temperatures and much below normal rainfall over the past week. Tennessee--91 percent of the state's tobacco has been cut. North Carolina--70 percent of the burley crop has been harvested. 

Tip for preparing air-cured for market: If you are adding moisture to burley or dark air-cured tobacco to bring it into case, make sure you avoid pockets of excessive moisture and prevent wet spots in bales, say Extension tobacco specialists Mitchell Richmond (Tennessee) and Andy Bailey and Bob Pearce (Kentucky). In addition, tobacco bales should be delivered as soon as possible to avoid long periods of storage on the farm, they say. 

SPECIAL REPORT 

WILL BUYERS HAVE TO COMPETE FOR THIS YEAR'S BURLEY CROP?

For the first time in recent history, U.S. and global burley supply availability among manufacturers is (or at least should be) a concern for the 2022 marketing season and looking forward into 2023, says Will Snell, Kentucky Extension agricultural economist. 

Certainly, U.S. burley faces a multitude of longer-term issues such as regulatory, labor, and infrastructure challenges, along with an escalating reduction in domestic premium cigarette sales at the expense of generics and alternative tobacco products which use little or zero U.S. burley. Collectively these issues could further reduce the need for U.S. burley in the coming years. 

But for the 2022 U.S. burley market, Snell calculates that, based on buyer purchase shares from recent years and assuming the crop is graded as 50 percent #1 and 50 percent as #2, an average price for the 2022 crop in the neighborhood of $2.25 to $2.30 per pound might be generated. This would compare to the average price of $2.10 paid for the 2021 crop. 

But an average price increase in this range--seven to 10 percent--would not offset the projected 15 to 20 percent increase in production costs. “That means that yields would have to be above average to sustain profit levels from last year," he says. That's the good news. 

“Unfortunately, it will be the most expensive crop they have ever produced,” Snell says. “While the current supply/demand balance for U.S. burley is favorable for growers, the question remains if the market will boost prices even higher for the 2022 crop and for the 2023 marketing season to improve future U.S. burley supply security among a declining and discouraged grower base.” 

In other tobacco news: 

The long-awaited formation of the KY Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Association has been achieved, and Joe Cain, formerly commodity director of the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation, has been named executive director. Headquarters is 201 North Doctor St., Springfield, KY 40069, and the telephone number is (502) 303-3663. Farmer officers are Chairman, Al Pedigo; Vice Chairman, Darrell Varner; Secretary, Penny Greathouse, and Treasurer, Jason Wade...If you would like to be on the Association contact list, please send your contact information (including phone and email address) to Cain at KYTobaccoGrowers@outlook.com. 

DATES TO REMEMBER 

Networking event for tobacco growers: Beginning at 5:30, October 21 in the Hospitality Tent at the North Carolina State Fair, immediately after the mock leaf auction. Beer, wine, and hors d'oeuvres will be served. Reservations--https://forms.office. com/r/ Z71Tu WU X6U. 

A Celebration of Tobacco Extension in North Carolina, starting at 4 p.m. on Saturday, October 29. It will start with a social hour at 4 p.m. followed by a pig pickin' at 5 p.m. at the Tobacco Farm Life Museum of Kenly, N.C., 709 Church Street, and honor retired members of the N.C. Extension Service tobacco team. Tickets are $15. You can order at this address--https://www.eventbrite.com/e/nc-state-extension-retired-tobacco-specialists-celebration-tickets-416678465507. 

EDITOR'S NOTE: I have changed my phone number. You can reach me now 984 810 9004. Mailing address remains Bickers Editing Service | 903-9 Shellbrook Ct., Raleigh, NC 27609.