Tobacco Farmer Newsletter: ALS, IDALIA FRUSTRATE GROWERS

Angular leafspot destroyed this dark fire-cured tobacco in Kentucky in September.

In western Kentucky and north central Tennessee, angular leafspot (ALS) continues to wreak havoc on the dark types. “Many farmers are destroying heavily infected fields,” says Andy Bailey, Kentucky-Tennessee Extension dark specialist, “If the disease has gotten in the top of the plant, there’s not much to do but harvest it soon or work with your crop insurance agent”…How much has been lost? The USDA September estimate for fire-cured is 38 million pounds, which Bailey says is about what he would have expected if ALS hadn’t broken out. “As it is, I will be surprised if we end up with 30 million pounds,” he says. The USDA projection for September places dark air-cured production at 12.6 million pounds. ALS losses for dark air-cured won’t be as heavy as for fire-cured since much of the dark air-cured crop is grown in areas where angular leafspot is less. Still, Bailey says, “We might not produce over 10 million pounds” of dark air…Bailey attributes much of the ALS outbreak to a number of intense rain events during the growing season. “Some crops that have suffered the worst damage from ALS have had over 30 inches of rainfall since July 1,” he says. “If the bacteria that causes ALS is present on tobacco leaves, heavy rains can drive the bacteria into the leaves”…Of the other types grown in this area, ALS tends to affect Connecticut Broadleaf quite a bit less than it affects dark tobacco, and it is almost never seen on burley.

In Georgia and Florida, the quality of the tobacco offered has been good, the price paid has been reasonable, but there just has not been enough of this crop to sell. “We will definitely come up short of expectations," says J. Michael Moore. “As of August 1, the size of the crop was estimated at 14 million pounds. Now USDA’s estimate is 12.6 million pounds, which seems credible. “That is quite a loss in production. Weather problems all season caused production problems."…Things farmers would like to forget about Hurricane Idalia: One farmer had 200 acres that was waiting to be stripped when the storm blew in. “Idalia stripped it. There was none to harvest.” On another farm, the roof of a storage shed was blown off, rendering the tobacco inside drenched and unusable….Since Idalia, growers in Georgia and Florida have hurried to get any leaf that was salvageable out of the field, with considerable success: Moore knows of only two growers who are still harvesting. The two Georgians should be done some time next week, he says…“We will be selling this crop until it runs out,” says Moore. That will be soon, possibly by the end of September.

In North Carolina, the end of the season is drawing near, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. “All indications are that growers are harvesting as fast as they can in most places. I think there’s a good chance we might finish sometime in early October. I'm not overly concerned about a late crop this year.” If harvest ends before October 12, it would be the first time it has ended before the North Carolina State Fair in several years, he noted….One problem in the field: “We have seen some brown spot in isolated areas, possibly caused by many days of heavy dew and or high humidity, says Vann...USDA projects flue-cured production in N.C. at 237 million pounds. But Vann is just optimistic enough to think growers might exceed that volume. “Our yield appears better than in a number of years,” he says.

Crop progress report from USDA-NASS (as of September 10) (Flue) GA--94% harvested; SC--93% harvested; NC—73% harvested; VA--90% harvested. (Burley/Dark) KY--64% harvested; TN--55% harvested; NC--37% harvested.

What the September crop projection from USDA tells us. Following are estimates based on USDA’s September 1 survey (expected pounds with percentage change from last year’s final, arranged by state and type):

Flue-cured

· North Carolina—237.3 million pounds, down 6%.

· Virginia--29.4 million pounds, up slightly.

· Georgia--12.6 million pounds, no change.

· South Carolina--12.1 million pounds, up slightly.

· All U.S.--291.5 million pounds, down 3%.

Burley

· Kentucky--53.2 million pounds, up 5%.

· Tennessee--4.35 million pounds, up 4%.

· Pennsylvania--2.75 million pounds, down 15%.

· Virginia--420,000 pounds, down 16%.

· North Carolina--240,000 pounds, down 11%.

· All U.S.--60.96 million pounds, up 4%.

Fire-cured

· Kentucky--22 million pounds, down 28%.

· Tennessee--15.8 million pounds, down 1%.

· Virginia--220 thousand pounds, down 33%.

· All U.S.--38 million pounds, down 25%.

Dark air-cured

· Kentucky--9.88 million pounds, down 35%.

· Tennessee--2.53 million pounds, down 73%.

· All U.S.--12.41 million pounds, down 50%.

Pennsylvania Seedleaf

· Pennsylvania--9.6 million pounds, up 1%.

Southern Maryland

· Pennsylvania--132,000 pounds, down 42%.

Tobacco, All types:

· Total US--413 million pounds, down 7 percent

REPORT FROM OVERSEAS

Southern Brazil's tobacco production for the 2022/2023 harvest reached 605,703 tons. The figures were finalized this week by the Brazilian Tobacco Growers' Association (AFUBRA) and were obtained through surveys carried out during the harvest with tobacco growers. By type: Flue-cured, 551,586 tons; Burley, 46,469; and Galpao, 7,649 tons. Compared to the previous season, plantings increased 6.1% from 246,590 hectares to 261,740 hectares. Production grew from 560,181 tons to 605,703 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The average price paid to tobacco growers in 2021/2022 this season was R$18.12, a variation of 6.5%...A slight increase in plantings is expected for next season.

A strong finish helped Malawian burley growers sell substantially more tobacco by the end of this year’s market than the year before. Through the market close on August 4, 120 million kilograms of tobacco had sold for US$282.6 million, according to the Malawian Tobacco Commission (TC), compared to $182 million on sales of 85 million kilograms in 2022. A TC spokesman said that better weather was one reason for the increased output and good quality. “The average price increased from $2.14/kg in 2022 to $2.35/kg this year.”…Prices were high throughout the season, he said. “[But the sales were] even more exciting towards the end of the season when buyers offered record prices.”