USDA issued its Prospective Plantings report March 28. The tobacco section is not quite as informative as it has in the past since several leaf-producing states have ceased submitting their data. But the top two states in flue-cured, burley and the two dark types provided information for this edition, so the following should provide a good idea of likely production trends as the season begins.
FLUE-CURED: In North Carolina, plantings in 2024 are projected at 114,000 acres, one percent above 2023. In Virginia, the number two flue-cured state, 13,000 acres are projected, two percent above 2023. For the two together, 127,000 acres, is projected, one percent above 2023. BURLEY: In Kentucky, 23,000 acres of burley are projected, down 15 percent from 2023. In Tennessee, the projection is 2,000 acres, down 33 percent from 2023. For the two together, the projection is 25,000 acres, down 20 percent. DARK AIR-CURED: In Kentucky, dark air-cured acreage is projected at 3,500 acres, about the same as in 2023. In Tennessee, acreage is projected at 1,000 acres, down about 17 percent. The two together, which encompass all the production of this type, are projected to produce 4,500 acres, about four percent less than 2023.
FIRE-CURED: In Kentucky, 5,000 acres of fire-cured are projected, 21 percent less than in 2023. In Tennessee, 3,800 acres are projected, 25 percent less than in 2023. For the two states together, the projection is 8,800 acres, 23 percent less than 2023. UNITED STATES: All tobacco area for harvest in 2024 is expected to total 165,300 acres, down four percent from 2023 for the states included in the projection. If realized, this will be the lowest tobacco harvested area on record. Reports from the field:
Two weeks to transplanting: Most South Carolina growers will begin transplanting by the first or second week of April if weather conditions cooperate, says William Hardee, S.C. Extension tobacco specialist. In the meantime, Hardee recommends closely watching plants in the greenhouse. “Warm, sunny days can evaporate float water quickly and cause rapid plant growth.” Staring down the barrel: Farmers in North Carolina are staring “down the barrel” of the 2024 season. “We should start planting in 10 to 14 days,” said Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist on March 28. “Conditions for greenhouses have been good, and we should have plants ready by that time.”
But don’t expect a surplus of plants. One reason: “As recently as five years ago, we still had significant numbers of relatively small growers who produced plants for sale. Some eventually didn’t even grow tobacco in the field. They made a small but real contribution to the plant supply but now they are pretty much gone. Make sure you line up plants as soon as possible, says Vann.
Much of the crop has been seeded in Tennessee, and Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension specialist, thinks most farmers will finish the first week of April.
The rise of KT 222: Growers in Tennessee are selecting a little more for maturity in their varieties and also for earliness or lateness depending on what they need. Still, one variety is dominating this spring. “The predicted surge in popularity of the new variety KT 222 appears to have come to pass,” says Richmond “It appears we will have two thirds and maybe three quarters of our burley plantings in this variety.”
More burley may be planted in traditional dark-producing areas in 2024. “The burley market is stronger than the dark market for the first time in years,” Richmond says. “Some growers may make the switch.”
Hot winter in Kentucky: The trend of higher than average temperatures continued in Kentucky, as this past winter was the eighth warmest ever recorded, says USDA. Rainfall recently has been lower than normal but still enough to keep most of the state out of the drought monitor. However, portions of western Kentucky are marked as abnormally dry. | 
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