Will the short U.S. crops of 2018 lead to aggressive buying?

Who is going to buy our tobacco? Boxes and hogsheads of leaf in a Universal Leaf warehouse at the company's facility in Nashville, N.C.. await shipping earlier this year. The size of the American burley crop is still up for debate, but it seems likely that at least some customers will not get as much as they originally wanted. "I said back at the beginning of the season that we would probably need 100 to 110 million pounds to meet the demand," says Will Snell, Kentucky Extension tobacco economist. "Now, I don't know if we are going to have that much. However, now I'm not sure the short crop will warrant aggressive buying by the companies given sluggish demand." The crop in the Bluegrass was dismal. "Many farmers produced a yield of less than 2,000 pounds," says Snell. "You can't justify labor and oth-er costs with that low of a yield." Our best hope for export sales? South-east Asia, said Blake Brown, N.C. Exten-sion economist, at the recent N.C. To-bacco Day. "The As-ian slice [of world cigarette sales] is huge," he says. Although sales there are mainly low-cost brands, the market for premium cigarettes is growing. In the short term, the chances for increased exports are largely dependent on resolution of the trade conflict with China.  Two recognized by N.C. State: Parker Phillips, sales representative for Fair Products, and Richard Reich, retired Assistant N.C. Commissioner of Agriculture, each were awarded the "Tobacco Great" award at N.C. Tobacco Day. The award, conferred by  Phillips the N.C. State agriculture faculty, is given to members of the tobacco family who have made significant contributions to the industry. Editor's Note: Watch for further coverage of N.C. Tobacco Day in the next issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. Menthol in trouble? The Food and Drug Administration announced it will seek a ban on menthol products. The Congressional leadership in tobacco states cried foul. N. C. Senator Richard Burr, "It is troubling, however, that an Administration that pledges to put America first is targeting legal, American-made products instead of focusing its attention on states that flout federal drug laws. If the United States continues down Reich this path, we will be following in Canada's footsteps, banning menthol but legalizing recreational drug use." Despite hurricanes in the east and long hard late-season rains in the west, much of 2018 crop is reportedly of good quality--or at least better than expected. "What we have been buying so far has been a good, useable style of tobacco," says Don Fowlkes, agronomist with the Burley Stabilization Corporation in Greeneville, Tn. "This looks like one of the better-colored burley crops we have had in some time." There is a significant amount of dark colored leaf, with much of it getting FR grades, he says. "But we also have some black leaf that suffered houseburn," he adds. Yields are another matter. The extended excessive rains that seemed to fall everywhere in the Tennessee tobacco-growing area drastically reduced production on many farms, says Fowlkes. In the Deep South, it was a very rainy season, and in fact the rains are still falling. "We still have cotton and peanuts in the field," says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist. But Georgia and Florida suffered no effects from Florence and Michael since they arrived right after the crops were finished. Therewere a few cases where leaf that was already harvested in barns or in storage was damaged. The rains were enough to reduce yields in Georgia and Florida, and it was a thin to light crop. "But many buyers have said that they were pleased with the quality," Moore says. Don't fall back on black shank:You can expect Georgia-Florida growers to use the full arsenal of weapons available for black shank control, says Moore. Besides rotation and resistant varieties, he predicts that a chemical program of Orondis in the transplant water, Presidio at first plowing and Ridomil at layby will be frequently used. Record-setting crop in Zimbabwe: Tobacco farmers in Zimbabwe produced a record crop 2018 of 556 million pounds, according to the Chinese press agency Xinhua. The country's previous production record was 520 million pounds, produced in 2000. The 2018 production was also 34 percent higher than the season before. Hats off to Universal for lasting 100 years in an industry as tough as tobacco. In 1918, the Virginia tobacco merchant Jacquelin P. Taylor and five other tobacco merchants consolidated to form Universal Leaf Tobacco Company, making this year its centennial. DATES TO REMEMBER January 30, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. January 31, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C.  February 1, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Southern Farm Show. N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. February 1, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. Annual Meeting, Holshouser Building, N.C. State Fairgrounds, Raleigh, N.C. (in conjunction with Southern Farm Show).

THE SMALLEST U.S. BURLEY CROP IN HISTORY?

Hard to believe now, but this good-looking burley--photographed on the Kentucky burley tour in mid-August--was part of the smallest burley crops in U.S. history. But the ax was just waiting to fall when this picture was taken, in the form of inopportune rains in September that just went on and on.

The burley crop just coming on the market has been projected at 90 million pounds, says Daniel Green, chief operating officer, Burley Stabilization Corporation. The numbers may end up a little higher by the end of the delivery season, but Green says it will not go higher than 100 million lbs. Either volume would be the smallest burley crop since records have been kept.

The shortfall resulted in part from the substantial cutbacks in plantings last spring (20 percent according to USDA), but late-season rains were the big factor. Some fields were drowned out by these rains, and leaf drop was a problem too. NOTE: Burley deliveries will begin in earnest next week.

Despite yield losses, the quality of this burley crop is decent, says Green, similar to the last two crops. "You could call this crop 'low in volume but acceptable in quality'," he says. "But much of the leaf is thin. There isn't a lot of the good-bodied redder styles that buyers are looking for."

Considering the circumstances, the sales season at Big M Warehouse in Wilson, N.C. (all flue-cured), went fairly well, says owner Mann Mullen. "We sold some tobacco for more than $2 a pound," he says. "But the practical top was probably more like $1.88." One big surprise: Some scrap tobacco sold for $.35 to $.75 a pound. And those prices held toward the end, when leaf prices fell off," he says. That was one of several indications that the market has changed its preferences, but Mann can't figure out what the changes are. "What is quality in flue-cured? I used to know but I don't know any more," he says. Mann is very apprehensive about next season, but for whatever it is worth, all tobacco offered at his warehouse found a buyer. There will be one more sale on November 28.

AOI's Farmville (N.C.) plant will no longer process leaf. Alliance One is moving all its U.S. tobacco processing to its Wilson, N.C., facility. AOI's processing operations in Farmville, N.C., will be relocated (tentatively) by the beginning of the 2019 season. Some processing jobs will shift from Farmville to Wilson, and the  Farmville facility will be "repurposed" for storage and special projects. But a workforce reduction in Farmville is nevertheless expected. "Consolidating our U.S. tobacco processing operations in Wilson is designed to maximize efficiency and allows us to continue to competitively deliver value-added products and services to our customers," said Pieter Sikkel, c.e.o. of AOI's parent cor-poration Pyxus International. The move was caused in part by new and increased tariffs on U.S. tobacco, declining export demand and the strong U.S. dollar, a statement by the company said.

 

Sign of the times: The American Tobacco Factory in Reidsville, N.C., is about to become vacant. You would remember it if you'd ever seen it; it has an enormous brick smokestack out front with large letters spelling out "Lucky Strike." With initial construction taking place in 1892, it was used to make cigarettes by American Tobacco Company for over 100 years. It was bought and owned briefly by Brown & Williamson, then sold to Commonwealth in 1997, which also used it to make cigarettes. In 2007, Imperial Tobacco, purchased Com-monwealth Brands and the factory along with it, operating it first as Imperial, then as its subsidiary ITG Brands. With its Greensboro factory (which formerly belonged to Lorillard). ITG just doesn't have enough work to keep Reidsville going. Maybe some smaller company will take a chance on it--I am sure it could be acquired at a very reasonable price. 

 

In other leaf news:

Hot market in Malawi: As reported in the last issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. Malawi's burley market (which ended in August) enjoyed much more sales volume than expected. It has now been learned that part of that excess--roughly 30 million pounds--may have been tobacco from growers in the neighboring countries of Mozambique and Tanzania, indicating the strong market in Malawi late in the season.

 

Hurricane spares tobacco in Cuba: Hurricane Michael touched Pinar Del Rio, the western end of Cuba and its leading cigar-producing province. But damage to the tobacco crop--which occurred mainly on October 8--was limited and can be managed, said the president of the leading cigarette manufacturer, Justo Luis Fuentes. In the newspaper La Prensa, Fuentes said, "We have the necessary resources to repair the damaged crops." According to preliminary reports, about 60,000 nurseries were lost, along with some planted hectares and 12 tobacco barns. Fortunately, this was very early in the season not much of the crop was in the field.

Mark your calendar: N.C. Tobacco Day, December 6 8:30 a.m.-12 p.m. Johnston County Extension Center, Smithfield, N.C. Lunch will follow the program.

FLUE-CURED MARKET COMING TO AN END

Selling flue-cured this year got more complicated after Hurricane Florence, but there is reason to think buyers may not have been able to fill their orders from the storm-ravaged crop. In happier times (photo), buyers at the American Tobacco Exchange warehouse in Wilson, N.C., had more to choose from at the sale on August 29. Al Whitfield (middle left) was the auctioneer and Tommy Faulkner (right) led the sale. Auction warehouses are operating this week and next week, maybe longer if there is a demand. Sales volumes are not available yet, but Hurricane Florence definitely lead to a reduction. But the quality loss has been the bigger problem. "We have had so much dark leaf since the storm," says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager at American Tobacco Exchange (ATE) in Wilson, N.C. "This was a difficult crop for everybody." Prices have ranged all across the scale, says Faulkner. "We have sold at 25 cents a pound to $1.85 a pound and every price in between." A meaningful average price will be hard to obtain since Florence arrived just as the leaf tobacco was coming to market. "It is hard o compare the prices of lugs and cutters to the price of leaf." Buyers appear to think this crop will have a use somewhere. They bought ii all. "All the tobacco we offered found a home at some price," Faulkner says. Burley harvest in Kentucky ended in the first two weeks of October. Production was probably reduced 20 to percent by rains in September. But the quality held up, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist, University of Kentucky. "There has been a little houseburn," he says. "The color looks pretty good." Sanitizing greenhouse trays with steam at 176 degrees has proven very effective as a means of tray sanitation, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist clear. Several self-contained units are available on the market, and information you can use to build  your own units can be obtained from N.C. State. (Check with your county agent.) There is very little benefit to the relatively old-fashioned method of washing with bleach or other chlorine-based ma-terials and, in fact, there is more potential for harm than good, Vann says. "You need to pres-sure-wash trays before steaming to remove plant and media debris," he says. Only a few of the new tray steamers have been acquired by farmers in Kentucky, says Pearce. "But I think growers could get some benefit from using them, he added. There can be no doubt: Tobacco companies are looking for ripe to overripe flue-cured upper-stalk leaf. Lemon style is just not in vogue any more, says Vann. "To produce overripe tips, be sure to fertilize properly, concentrating on applying enough nitrogen. Then, when you think your crop is ready to harvest, give it 10 or 15 more days." We may eventually be selling to a niche market for dead ripe tips, since no one else in the world can produce this type of leaf, he adds. Flue harvest ended in North Carolina before October 15, says Vann. The Eastern Belt was essentially finished by the beginning of thee month and the Old Belt wrapped up right as some of the light frosts arrived a couple weeks back.  Bad news from a major competitor: Burley revenue in Malawi, our strongest competitor for the world burley market, rose 60 percent in this year's marketing season, which ended in August. In addition, reliable reports from dealers in the United States indicate that buyers are searching out and buying uncommitted burley stocks in Malawi wherever they can. A reasonable assumption: The market thinks that U.S. burley can't meet industry needs when it comes to market in a few weeks and that Malawi is the best substitute. Final word on the 2018 crop: The USDA's latest Crop Report--the last that will appear in calendar 2018--confirmed the stunning losses in yield late in the season to the hurricane in North Carolina and extreme rain damage in Kentuc-ky. Flue-cured production in the current crop is projected to total 342 million pounds, the report says, down 26 percent from 2017. Bur-ley tobacco production is expected to total nearly 113 million pounds, down about 30 percent from last year. Following are projections by type, plus projections by state for flue-cured and burley. Flue-cured: North Carolina--252.8 million pounds, down 29.5 percent. Georgia    --22.5 million pounds, down 14.2 percent. South Carolina--20.4 million pounds, 19 percent. Virginia--46.2 million pounds, down 9.2 percent. Burley: Kentucky--90.1 million pounds, down 30.2 percent. Tennessee--10.2 million pounds, down 43.3 percent. Pennsylvania--9.6 million pounds, down 7.2 percent. Virginia--1.7 million pounds, down 22.7 percent. North Carolina--1.36 million pounds, down 5.5 percent. Fire-cured: 57.7 million pounds, down 14.3 percent. Southern Maryland (Pennsylvania): 3.22 million pounds, down 25.4 percent. Dark air-cured: 26.44 million pounds, up 30.1 percent. Pennsylvania Seedleaf: 5.52 million pounds, up 27.7 percent. Total U.S. (all types): 548 million pounds, down 23 percent from 2017. Mark your calendar: N.C. Tobacco Day, December 6, 8:30 a.m. - 12 p.m. Johnston County Extension Center, Smithfield, N.C. Lunch will follow the program. ADVERTISING

THE RAINY END OF THE 2018 SEASON

Too much rain in September robbed Kentucky burley of much of its production capacity.

With two record-setting hurricanes wreaking havoc on eastern North Carolina flue-cured and exceptional rains in Kentucky in September, it was a discouraging ending indeed for much of the Tobacco Belt. Among the types:

FLUE-CURED

NORTH CAROLINA--There is still some disagreement about the loss from Hurricanes Florence and Michael, but 100 to 110 million pounds seems to be a realistic estimate. Almost all of that came in the Eastern Belt and most was the result of Florence. But Michael had more of an effect in the Old Belt, where some flue-cured is still being harvested as fast as growers can get it out. "On late-planted tobacco, we saw some late-planted harvested just once, then all the rest was stripped," says Dennis White, owner of the Old Belt Tobacco Sales, which operates a warehouse near Winston-Salem. He is still getting good sales at this warehouse, and all leaf offered has found a home. But the character of the leaf offered now has definitely changed. "Now it is mostly on the H side. H5K is a grade we see a lot." The price has not gone up substan-tially since the hurri-canes, White says. "It falls in the $1.50 to $1.65 range." The practical top has been around $1.85. But even though demand wasn't extremely strong before the weather crisis, one wonders if all orders will be met. 

VIRGINIA -- Excessive rain occurred in late August and continued in the form of storms in September and October "Assuming we were heading toward a 50- to 52-million-pound flue-crop crop in Virginia, I would guess that we lost 10 to 12 percent of that total," says David Reed, Extension tobacco agronomist. "In the eastern area, the loss is probably in the area of five percent, but might have approached 15 to 20 percent in some areas of Pittsylvania and Halifax Counties." A few growers made their contracted pounds, but most will fall short, Reed says.

SOUTH CAROLINA--Very little tobacco remained in the field in South Carolina when Florence blew through. Area Extension agronomy agent William Hardee estimated for Tobacco Farmer Newsletter earlier that 200 to 400 acres still had leaf to be harvested at that time, almost all of it tip leaf. Overripening ensued and he feared none of it was saved (see TFN, October I, 2018).

BURLEY

KENTUCKY--The burley crop in Kentucky took a significant hit from the rains in September, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "Statewide. I would estimate losses of 20 to 30 percent. In the bluegrass region, the losses may have been up to 40 percent in the bluegrass region." He thinks burley production for Kentucky lost 20 to 30 million pounds and might be down to a total of around 80 million pounds."

TENNESSEE--Burley in Tennessee was not seriously affected by the rains that struck Kentucky late in the season. "There was a small percentage affected. maybe five percent," says Eric Walker, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. "Overall, the crop looks pretty good. A small percentage of the tobacco was hit late with significant foliar leaf spot diseases, mainly frogeye leaf spot and some target spot. Rather than the weather, other factors have significantly reduced the size of the burley crop this year. I expect acreage to be down 35-40 percent from last year, and that may be a little conservative. Estimates of pounds are always hard, but I think we will have somewhere around 12 million pounds."

OHIO--Uncharacteristic rains in August, Sep-tember and the first half of October left burley tobacco in a "mess" in Southern Ohio. There is still crop in the field. Some farms in Adams County reported around 18 inches of late-season rain, says David Dugan, Ohio Extension Educator. "Several acres were under water as result of heavy rains over the Labor Day weekend.  Some producers harvested less than half of their crop as a result. The Gallia County area is probably 60-70 percent harvested--the rest was lost. The quality of what was harvested was impacted, but I am not sure to what extent. I do not have a good estimate for pounds but would think Ohio is looking at a minimum of a 50 percent loss."

DARK

BLACK PATCH--The dark-producing area of western Kentucky and Tennessee perhaps had the best fortune of any of the states in September and October. It avoided the storms that damaged the crop in the bluegrass area. "We still have a good crop," says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist. "There is still maybe 10 percent of the dark fired crop to be harvested yet." He thinks there will be around 56 million pounds of dark fired and around 19 million pounds of dark air cured.

A REPORT ON WHAT'S LEFT OF THE 2018 CROP

Three days of Hurricane Florence turned the promising tobacco on the left into the marginally salvageable mess on the right. Gusting winds were the main problem as they whipped leaves up and down causing premature ripening. These pictures were taken in the same field in Wilson County, N.C. Photos courtesy of Norman Harrell, Wilson Cooperative Extension Service. NORTH CAROLINA--"Tobacco harvest is over, and not in the good way," says Don Nicholson, N.C. Department of Agriculture regional agronomist who covers the counties around Raleigh, Smithfield and Wilson. In Duplin County, "All the tobacco that is still in the field is damaged severely and no good, says Blake Sandlin, county Extension agent. In Franklin County, flue-cured is now showing the signs of hurricane damage. "The tips arequickly turning orange and drying up," says Charles Mitchell, Extension agent. "We are experiencing barn rot and brown stems. Decisions are currently being made whether to continue harvesting or stop." Many Franklin County growers had 50 percent of their crop remaining in the field prior to Florence. In Craven County, unharvested tob-acco and corn left in fields were badly damaged, says Mike Carroll, county Extension agent. "(It is) unlikely to be harvested simply due to excessively wet soils and rapid decay of leaf/kernels." A wealth of information on how to deal with disaster on the farm is available from the NC Disaster Information Center, which can be found online at https://ncdisaster. ces.ncsu. edu. It is prepared for North Carolinians but has many articles of value to farmers from any state. SOUTH CAROLINA--The area north and west of Myrtle Beach, S.C., where most of the state's tobacco is grown, was one of the hardest hit spots in the state during Florence. Fortunately, very little tobacco remained in the field at the time. "Only about 200 to 400 acres still had leaf to be harvested," says William Hardee, S.C. area Extension agronomy agent for Horry and Marion Counties. "All of that suffered from beating by 70 to 80 mph wind gusts and 18 to 23 inches of rain. This triggered a plant response that caused leaf to overripen and turn yellow, then brown. "Some of it might have been salvageable, but then we had to wait for soils to dry so we could get back into the field. I am afraid all the tobacco left after the storm will turn out to be a complete loss." There were some farmers that lost a few barns of tobacco when the power went out as well. Intense autumn storms are becoming a way of life in the Pee Dee, says Hardee. "We have had this kind of weather three of the last four years." KENTUCKY--They weren't connected with Florence, but near constant rains last month wreaked havoc on the burley crop in Central Kentucky and some other parts of the state. "It rained nearly every day during the last full week of September," says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. "Stalled fronts allowed wave after wave of rain to come over Bacterial leaf drop took its toll on Kentucky burley in September. us." Among other things, the rain has led to a significant problem with bacterial leaf drop. "Some fields have lost more than 50 percent of their leaves," says Pearce. He says with all the rain-related losses, the final volume for the Kentucky burley crop may be 25 to 30 percent below the USDA September estimate. TENNESSEE--At least 80 percent of the East Tennessee crop has been harvested, and most of that should be harvested very soon. This area was not impacted by Hurricane Florence, but there has been plenty of rain, says Don Fowlkes, agronomist for the Burley Stabilization Corporation. "We have had a few fields that have had some bacterial leaf drop and some leaves have dropped off. But a good yield is still a possibility"...Good news from the curing barn: "The industry has been promoting red color in cured burley for several years," says Fowlkes. "From what I have seen, 2018 may be one of the redder curing crops we have had." BLACK PATCH--The dark crop in the Kentucky and Tennessee is the best in several years, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist for the two states. At least 75 percent of Kentucky-Tennessee dark fired has been harvested, while perhaps 90 percent of dark air-cured is out of the field. Production? At this point, Bailey estimates 56 million pounds of dark fired and 18 to 19 million pounds of dark air-cured, or maybe a bit more... Bailey reports that there has been an outbreak in dark tobacco of flea beetles in the last few weeks, which is very late in the season. Some of them reached the threshold for treatment. "I can never remember a threshold situation late in the season if imidacloprid had been used on transplants," Bailey says. Some farmers made foliar applications with Admire Pro, but the results weren't great, he says. Others applied Orthene, again without much success. Carbaryl and lannate were other control choices.  In many cases it took two applications to control the flea beetles present at these high levels, he says. How much remains to be harvested? According to USDA, also of October 1, nine percent of Virginia flue-cured was still to be harvested, compared to 14 percent of North Carolina flue-cured. Harvest in South Carolina and Georgia is substantially complete. Eighteen percent ofKentucky burley was still in the field, said USDA, compared to 10 percent in Tennessee and 42 percent in North Carolina. In other tobacco-related news: Cooperative CEO out: Robert B. Fulford Jr. has left the position of Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. Tobacco Cooperative., which he took just last February. He will be replaced temporarily by Oscar House, USTC's Senior Vice President of Manufacturing. House will serve as Interim CEO and President while a search is conducted for Fulford's successor. Note: The cooperative has had two CEO's in the last two years. Stuart Thompson left in the summer of 2017. New name for Alliance One--but not for its tobacco segment. The leaf dealer Alliance One Inc. has adopted a new name--Pyxus International Inc.--that it has attached to all of its segments except for its tobacco division, which will continue to be called Alliance One. Sales every Tuesday through the season.

HOW TO HANDLE THE HURRICANE

Hustling to beat the hurricanes: Workers hustle to get flue-cured leaf in barns in Wake County, N.C. (File photo by Chris Bickers)

With Florence bearing down, many of the flue-cured growers along the Atlantic Coast faced intense weather conditions with significant tobacco still in the field. Georgia might dodge the bullet since the path of the storm is expected to pass by it, and most of its crop has been harvested already (95 percent as of September 9, according to USDA). But South Carolina still had 10 percent unharvested, Virginia 35 percent, and in North Carolina, Extension specialist Matthew Vann reckons that 40 to 45 percent of the fields still have enough tobacco in them to be negatively affected by Florence. And the effect can be severe, Vann says. "You can expect heavy rains and very strong winds, and that will cause leaf whipping," he says. "It appears that we can expect at least a three-or-four-day wind. With the intensity of the conditions expected, the leaf is going to ripen extremely fast." To make matters worse, it has been coming off fast the last few weeks, and Vann feels most growers are already maxed out on barn space...What to do? Well, in the short term, the goal should be to minimize the leaf you lose as a result of electrical failure during the cure. Grant Ellington, Extension agricultural engineer at N.C. State, provided an excellent set of recommendations a few storms ago. I am going to print it below in hopes it will help you prepare for the worst.   Curing Tips Should adverse weather cause the loss of electrical current to the tobacco curing barn and a backup generator is not available, listed below are some tips that are recommended in order to minimize leaf damage. For tobacco that is being cured, the damage that might be sustained is related to the stage of cure when the power is lost and the condition of the tobacco when it is loaded into the barn. Tobacco that is in the very early or late stages of curing generally fairs the best when the power is out for extended periods. The following guidelines are useful when generator capacity is limited or not available: Yellowing (95 degrees WB/100 degrees DB) - about 24 hours - This period can be extended if the tobacco can be cooled to near outside temperatures before power outage occurs or as soon as possible after the outage occurs. Thereafter, the heat should be flushed every hour if the generator capacity is not sufficient to continue the cure normally. If a generator is not available, all air vents and doors should be opened to allow as much heat as possible to escape. Late yellowing/early leaf drying (105 degrees WB/105-115 degrees DB) - about 6 hours - This is the most critical period for damage and the tobacco should be cooled as soon as possible by any means available, with the heat being flushed every hour as suggested above. If sufficient generator capacity is not available and your area is expecting severe damage, tobacco that would be in this stage of curing during a prolonged power outage might be more profitable to the grower if it had not harvested. Leaf drying (105 degrees WB/120-135 DB) - about 24 hours - Extend the safe period by cooling as suggested above. Stem drying (110 degrees WB/150 degrees + DB) - several days - Attention to these barns can be delayed in order to provide attention to barns in the earliest stages of curing. Barn Loading Considerations Damage to tobacco during power outages is usually more severe in boxes than racks and particularly when containers are not loaded uniformly or loaded with wet tobacco. Therefore, tobacco harvested between now and the time the threat is passed should be harvested dry, loaded uniformly, and perhaps the containers should be loaded lighter than normal in order to maximize air movement and cooling potential should a power outage occur.   Don't forget about your greenhouses.  "Roll up curtains tight and secure doors," says Norman Harrell, Extension director in Wilson County, N.C. "If we lose power, you need to have backup power for the greenhouses to keep the plastic layers fully inflated."    BURLEY REPORT:  In East Tennessee, 2018 is beginning to look like a better-than-average season. "We have a good-looking crop," says Don Fowlkes, Agronomy Manager, Burley Stabilization Corporation. "There were the normal seasonal challenges, but now it appears that we have decent weight and the outlook for good quality also." At least half has been harvested and curing has gone well. Growers got a break in the first few weeks of curing. "It has beenunusually hot the past two or three weeks, but we have had good humidity so the tobacco hasn't cured too fast." Fowlkes has hopes that this crop may have plenty of the reddish color that buyers are looking for. In Kentucky, a fairly dark color seems on the way too, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension toba-cco specialist. So far, there hasn't been significant flash curing. Like Tennessee, Kentucky has plenty of humidity. Maybe too much. Pearce fears there may be a problem of houseburn. Some Kentuckians got rain from Tropical Storm Gordon, but there hasn't been much rain since Sunday, Pearce says. "But it continues cloudy. We have had no sunshine for some time." More than half the Kentucky burley crop has been harvested, says Pearce.  "But not much more." The September USDA Crop Report was released at noon. Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 415 million pounds, the report says, down 10 percent from 2017. Burley tobacco production is expected to total 129 million pounds, down 20 percent from last year. Production projections by type and by state for flue-cured and burley follow. Flue-cured: North Carolina--322 million pounds, down 10.2 percent. Virginia--48.4 million pounds, down 4.3 percent. Georgia 22.5 million pounds, down 14.2 percent. South Carolina--21.600 million pounds, down 14.2 percent.                                                                Burley: Kentucky--106 million pounds million pounds, down 17.9 percent. Tennessee 10.200 million pounds, down 43.3 percent. North Carolina--1.360 million pounds, down 15.2 percent. Pennsylvania--10 million pounds, down 3.3 percent. Virginia--1.8 million pounds, down 18.1 percent. Fire-cured: 57.772 million pounds, down 2.9 percent.         Dark air-cured: 26.1 million pounds, up 29.5 percent. Pennsylvania seedleaf: 5.76 million pounds, up 33.3 percent.          Southern Maryland: 3.2 million pounds, down 25.4 percent. Note--The only types that (according to USDA) increased in production over 2017 are dark air-cured and Pennsylvania seedleaf, neither of which is used in cigarettes. To receive the newsletter in your email box, please click on "Join our mailing list" and follow the prompts. For more information, call 919-789 4631 or email cebickers@aol.com.

AUCTION SALES IMPROVE--A LITTLE

This tobacco was offered for sale in a live auction last Wednesday at the American Tobacco Exchange in Wilson, N.C. Sales continue today at ATE, Horizon Tobacco and Big M Warehouse, all in Wilson. Live auctions are conducted at Old Belt Sales in Rural Hall, N.C., on Tuesdays. The market for flue-cured lugs has improved slightly in the last two weeks. The ware-housemen I have talked to are confident that all sound tobacco that is offered at auction, including lugs, will find a buyer. "But it will be at a price," Kenneth Kelly of Horizon Tobacco in Wilson, N.C., told me. "This season all our buyers are very price conscious." Two warehouses--Horizon and American Tobacco Exchange--are offering live auctions every Wednesday till the end of the season. Horizon is also offering silent auctions, as is Big M Warehouse of Wilson. Why? "We decided to meet the demand of the farmers," says Kelly. "We are offering live and silent auctions now, and we will see which commands the most interest over the season." He thinks some of the desire by farmers for a live auction is based on sentiment, on getting back to the old days. Others have said the live auctions are more transparent. But Kelly finds this belief unconvincing. "Silent auc-tions are just as transparent. If one of my customers wants to know something about the sale, all he has to do is ask me." How long will the flue-cured auction season last? In the last few years, Horizon has held its last sales in November, but Kelly is worried that this crop won't last that long. "It is ripening at a very fast pace here (around Wilson)." In the Piedmont of North Carolina, the crop seems to be improving at the Old Belt Sales warehouse in Rural Hall near Winston-Salem. "We had a good sale Tuesday," said Dennis White, owner of the warehouse. "Throwaway lugs were still bringing 80 cents a pound. But lugs with color and body were selling for $1.10 a pound, and if they were orange, $1.25 to $1.30." A few leaf grades were sold at $1.90. "They were sold too early. Those grades will bring more later." A few cutter grades went for $1.75 to $1.80. Old Belt Sales will conduct an auction every Tuesday for the duration of the season. Reports from the field Coastal Plain: Growers are pushing to get tobacco out of the field in Robeson County, says Mac Malloy, Extension agent. "Conditions remain dry and rain would be welcome," he says...In the counties around Raleigh, Smithfield and Wilson. Farmers are also in need of a rain, says Don Nicholson, NC Department of Agriculture agronomist. "Tobacco growers are attempting to fill every available curing barn to save as much of the crop as possible," he says...In Craven County, harvest is proceeding quickly due to rapid leaf decay, says Mike Carroll, Extension agent. He earlier reported "wildly variable" crop conditions. "As example, we have fields of tobacco completely harvested, yet there are fields yet to be harvested at all. Piedmont: The area around Winston-Salem could produce a very good quality crop, says Dennis White [see above], but it may not be real heavy. "We had good weather most of the season, but recently we have had 10 days of 90-degree weather. So it may not weigh a lot. But it looks to be on the overripe side"...Close to Virginia, soil moistures have increased thanks to recent rainfall, says Caswell County Extension agent Joey Knight. Caswell borders Virginia and is quite close to Danville. Tobacco growers are getting only light weights on tobacco that was planted late. "Early planted tobacco [however] is looking great with good yields. The X and C grades are already harvested," Knight says... In the Virginia Piedmont, Bruce Jones, Extension agent in Appomattox County, says that much of the county received in excess of one inch of rainfall on September 1. "This week will be busy with dark tobacco harvesting and curing," he says. Mountains: Torrential rains in some areas of Smyth County [Va.] and surrounding counties have resulted in isolated damage to rural roads and fields, says Andy Overbay, Extension agent. "Continued wet weather has damaged the [burley] tobacco crop, but with harvest fast approaching those issues should be contained"... Rainfall from one weekend storm in late August ranged from four to eight inches, says Stanley Holloway, Yancey County [N.C.] agent. "Limited field work [was done] due to wet soils. Crop stage and conditions vary incredibly due to total accumulation of rainfall over the past few weeks." But a relatively dry week through September 2 allowed for some progress in the field. How much flue-cured has been harvested? As of September 4, USDA estimated that 91 percent of the Georgia crop, 70 percent of the South Carolina crop, 58 percent of the North Carolina crop and 58 percent of the Virginia crop had been harvested. And burley: 41 percent of the Kentucky crop, 35 percent of the Tennessee crop and 19 percent of the North Carolina crop had been harvested. In Pennsylvania, where three types--including burley--are grown, 69 percent of all types had been harvested. In Kentucky, 84 percent of the Kentucky crop had been topped. To receive this newsletter by email, please click on "Join our mailing list" and follow the prompts. For more information, you can call Chris Bickers at 919-789 4631 or email cebickers@aol.com. ADVERTISERS Sales every Tuesday through the season.

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