The hot question at winter grower meetings: IS OPTIMISM JUSTIFIED FOR 2025? The 2024 crop set an unenviable record, said Matt Grissom, president of the Tobacco Growers Association of N.C. at the association’s annual meeting in February. “It was the most expensive we have ever grown. And input costs continue to rise, led of course by the steady increase of the AERW for the H2A workforce, followed by fertilizer fuel and interest on operating capital... New varieties could help. The farmers who do well in the next few years are going to be the ones who find ways to increase yields, said Grissom. “We have pressed hard for the past decade to encourage research that demonstrates meaningful improvements to our plant varieties,” he said. “It is encouraging to see several recently introduced varieties that show gains in this area.” Other challenges: But that is not going to be enough,” Grissom said. We still need help in situations such as:” · o--Target spot that can wreck yields by as much as 400 pounds per acre. · o--Extended harvesting where the crop is left in the field longer so that it is overripe at harvest.” · 0--Chemistry as purchasers are shifting attention to things in the leaf that farmers we can’t see. A last look at last season N.C. marketed 208 million pounds of very high quality flue-cured tobacco in 2024. Beltwide, the crop was approximately 235 million pounds,” (calculated using the grower checkoff assessment as the standard mea-surement). The aggregate figure is about 100 million pounds short of the expected planted potential. Weather was the main reason for the shortfall in production. Hurricane Debby made landfall in August and was unique in that it impacted every acre of tobacco along the eastern seaboard from Florida to Pennsylvania. Supply tight, demand strong: The shortfall in the U.S. followed major reductions in origins such as Brazil and Zimbabwe, our two leading competitors for the world flue-cured market. The result: A tight supply and strong demand in the market. It’s expected to take multiple seasons worldwide to replenish stocks, said Grissom. Which way 2025 production? This season is shaping up to be a crop that potentially shows some slight increase in demand, said speakers at the TGANC annual meeting. Unfortunately, projections of domestic consumption continue to indicate decline. We witnessed contract reductions from some large domestic manufacturers. But export opportunities may increase in response to short global supplies. “Hopefully, this will be enough to offset domestic reduction,” said Grissom. “We predict a 2025 crop size that will hold flat in terms of planted acres.” Price can't be overlooked. Grissom pledged that TGANC will continue to communicate to buyers the importance of increased prices. “If we are expected to grow less tobacco, then it must provide increased returns.” The guiding principle of all business is net margins, and growers are losing confidence in (their) long term sustainability. I know purchasers grow tired of our persistent advocacy to increase prices,” he said. “But we are in an industry crisis and the only action that will save us is to restore profitability.” View from Kentucky: A delegation from the Burley and Dark Tobacco Growers of Kentucky and Tennessee attended the TGANC meeting. Al Pedigo of Scottsville, Ky., the president of the association, said it was encouraging to see the opportunity for the two groups to cooperate. "We are finding common ground to devote our efforts to," he said after the N.C. meeting. "Together we can carry more influence among political leaders.” BDTGA had just held its third meeting in January. The worst problem: : Without a doubt, adverse effect wage rates will be an urgent topic for discussion in Washington and in state capitals, says Pedigo, who is afraid that even with a good crop, tobacco farmers in Kentucky may be hard pressed to turn a profit after paying such a high labor cost. "AEWRs are the worst problem tobacco farmers have now." Burley contracting starts Burley plantings in the U.S. will be flat in 2025, Pedigo thinks. He notes that contracting for burley has barely started and won't get going in earnest till perhaps the end of the month...It appears that dark contracting will be way down again, he said. Resolution for a freeze: TGANC included wage rate reform as one of its resolutions at the February meeting. “We encourage solutions to streamline the wage rate formula,” said Graham Boyd, TGANC executive director. “It is critical to ensure a sustainable labor force. We support the current agricultural industry’s collective request…to freeze the AEWR at previous levels while a solution is achieved.” Tobacco outlook 2045 Thanks to a modest shortfall in output in most of the major flue-cured producing countries, the outlook is one of cautious optimism going into the season. Flue-cured production was definitely down in 2024, said Jeffrey Dorfman, N.C. Extension Agricultural Economist, in a presentation at the TGANC meeting. Excluding China, it was down 4% in 2024, he said. Zimbabwe had drought that hurt its harvest, but production is expected to rebound in 2025. Brazil reportedly has a big crop in the ground now. Nevertheless, there is a world shortage right now, and N.C. tobacco farmers should have good pricing power in 2025. “We could see prices of $2.30 to $2.50 per pound,” Dorfman said. Contract early But the consensus at the association meeting was that farmers should make contract arrangements early, since if there is any price swing later in the contracting season, it could be expected to be downward. And you can learn about export programs for flue-cured at Tobacco Associates’ Annual meeting, on March 6, at the Wilson County Agricultural Center, 1806 S. Goldsboro, Wilson N.C., from 10 to 12 a.m. EST. The program will feature speakers well informed on the leaf situation, including Ivan Genov, Manager Tobacco Industry Analysis for the International Tobacco Growers Association, who will give an overview of the global market. Admission is free. Lunch follows Please call 919-821-7670 or email tar@tobacco associatesinc.org to reserve a seat.c="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/

Caption: North Carolina growers gather at a past annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina. This year's meeting will be held at the Southern Farm Show on February 7. See below for details. Photo courtesy of Southern Farm Show. NC TOBACCO GROWERS TO MEET FEB. 7 Plan on attending the annual meeting of the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., EST, Friday, February 7. It will be held at the N.C. State Fairgrounds, Holshouser Bldg. (its normal location), in Raleigh in connection with Southern Farm Show. A varied program will feature speakers projecting the outlook for tobacco in 2025. It will close with a free meal....A new tool for control of ALS: A new application program for the chemical Actigard is showing “some promise” in control of angular leaf spot (ALS) which has caused substantial damage to dark crops in Kentucky and Tennessee over the past 10 years,. Called a “plant activator,” Actigard doesn’t directly kill diseases but helps the plant turn on its natural defense system to fight off disease. It was particularly damaging on dark in Kentucky and Tennessee in 2016 and 2023. It does not affect flue-cured.....Different program than for blue mold: “We are testing a new application program for Actigard where we make more frequent applications at lower rates than the blue mold application programs,” says Bailey. “Actigard has not eliminated ALS in our trials, but it definitely works better when used at lower rates more frequently than with traditional programs we have tested in the past.”...There’s another advantage in control of ALS: Actigard can be used at low spray volumes and is not dependent on full plant coverage at high spray volume like streptomycin or copper programs. According to the label, Actigard could be applied at spray volumes as low as 10 gallons per acre. The third annual meeting of the Burley & Dark Tobacco Producer Association (BDTPA) was held January 16 at Sloan Convention Center, Bowling Green, Ky., in conjunction with the Council of Burley Tobacco and the Kentucky Commodity Conference. Attendance this year was estimated at 60, down a little because a leaf buyer had to reopen its doors after bad weather earlier forced it to close. Joe Cain, Executive Director of the association, said members were optimistic after the second full year of the association’s existence and plan to act aggressively on behalf of their members. First priority: A fact-finding delegation of farmers to travel to Washington DC to acquaint tobacco-state legislators and other officials who are significant to tobacco’s future with the association and its activity....The officers of the association, all reelected from a year ago, are President- Al Pedigo (also Council for Burley Tobacco); Vice President- Darrell Varner (also Chair CBT); Secretary- Bradley Shear; and Treasurer- Jason Wade....Four new directors were named to the BDTPA board at the meeting. They are David Furnish, Charlie Skaggs, Tony Eldridge and Tony Holloway. The association now has board members from Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana. It would be great to get members from all burley- and dark-producing states. Call Cain at (502) 303-3663 if you are interested. Look for more burley in the Black Patch this spring. Maybe much more, says Andy Bailey, dark tobacco specialist for Kentucky and Tennessee. Early reports are that companies plan to come to Western Kentucky and north central Tennessee to try to recoup some of the shortfall in the traditional burley areas.” At the same time, a substantial cut in contract offers for dark types is expected. These two trends suggest more burley, less dark. Why the decline in dark consumption? Nicotine pouches that only contain nicotine and no tobacco have increased in sales rapidly since 2018 while smokeless tobacco products like moist snuff have seen a slow but steady decline during that time, says Bailey. “This will be the third straight year in which dark contracts have been reduced by some major manufacturers,” he says...  DATES TO REMEMBER Ky-Tennessee Tobacco Expo, February 4, 8 a.m.-1 p.m. CST, Robertson County Fairgrounds, Springfield, Tn. Southern Farm Show, February 5 through 7, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. EST each day. Admission is free. ...Breakfast with the Agriculture Commissioner (with Steve Troxler of N.C. February 7, at 7:30 a.m. EST at the N.C. State Fairgrounds Holshouser Bldg. (during Southern Farm Show.)

WHY VARIETY SELECTION IS THE FIRST STEP IN IMPROVING YOUR PROSPECTS IN 2045

Caption: So many greenhouses were damaged in Georgia and Florida by the 2024 storms that there is reason to think that there won't be enough plants for a full crop in 2025. See below. The yields of flue-cured tobacco in the United States plateaued in 1981 with the introduction of the tobacco variety K326. In the year 2000, tobacco yields began to increase by an average of five pounds per acre per year. You can take advantage of this improved yield situation to better you chances of profit in 2045. Start with variety selection. “We have access to a diversity of genetic material that is superior to what was available even a decade ago,” says Mathew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. “Breeders have broken through the yield plateau of the 1980s and have found methods to incorporate better disease resistance along the way." Producers should strongly consider planting modern varieties, he says. In addition, economizing on production practices will frequently pay off. But be very careful about cutting back on practices with a proven positive impact. “It would be quite possible to throw out the baby with the bath water here,” says Vann. Most farmers have developed a good management program already. “You could make one or two small changes without affecting the yield, but the cumulative effect of numerous cuts could be commercial yield reduction.” Rebuilding greenhouses: The powerful storms of 2014—particularly Hurricane Helene—wreaked havoc on greenhouses in Georgia and Florida. Perhaps 25% of the capacity has been lost. But perhaps it can be retrieved--J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist, says farmers are vigorously repairing their facilities and expect to have many of them back in service in a few weeks. Note: This damage was not evenly distributed over the flue-cured states, and Extension specialists in N.C. and Va. reported very little barn crushing in their states, although there was plenty of structural damage in other areas.  Speaking of not cutting too many production corners, Moore urges farmers not to cut back much on tomato spotted wilt control. “There isn’t much new in spotted wilt control this season, so you need to make best use of what you have,” he says…There may be some relief from spotted wilt because of the very cold weather we have been having. “The weather may well reduce thrips infestations,” he says. Don’t economize on Admire Pro in the greenhouse before transplanting, he adds. New flue-cured variety: NC 987 is a new hybrid developed by Ramsey Lewis in the tobacco breeding program at N.C. State University. It has consistently exhibited yields above the test average in OVT trials with good, cured leaf quality. The variety is considered to have moderate resistance to black shank but minimal bacterial wilt resistance. DATES TO REMEMBER Ky-Tennessee Tobacco Expo, February 4, 8 a.m.-1 p.m. CST, Robertson County Fairgrounds, Springfield, Tn. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., EST, Friday, February 7, at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh (in connection with Southern Farm Show). Southern Farm Show, February 5 through 7, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. EST each day. Admission is free. Breakfast with the Agriculture Commissioner (with Steve Troxler of N.C. February 7, at 7:30 a.m. EST at the N.C. State Fairgrounds Holshouser Bldg. (during Southern Farm Show.)