| Inventories growing--A worker loads boxes of burley leaf at a warehouse of the Burley Stabilization Corporation in Springfield, Tn. |
The main reason for this lack of company interest in the 2015 is the unexpectedly high production in 2014, especially for flue-cured. In January, USDA raised its already high total volume estimate for the 2014 flue-cured crop, pegging it at 573 million pounds, up seven percent from its previous forecast and 26 percent higher than last year. Harvested flue-cured acres totaled 245,300 acres in 2014, said USDA, up six percent from the previous forecast and seven percent above a year ago. Yields averaged 2,335 pounds per acre, 17 pounds above the last forecast and 349 pounds more than in 2013.
Burley production totaled 213 million pounds, according to USDA. That was one percent more than the forecast and 11 percent above last year. Growers were believed to have harvested 101,500 acres, up three percent from the previous forecast and three percent above 2013. Yields averaged 2,100 pounds per acre, 52 pounds below the previous forecast but 156 pounds above a year ago. Note: There is considerable disagreement with the production estimate for this type, with credible suggestions made that around 200 million pounds would be closer to the mark.
Among our competitors, meanwhile, the outlook is mixed. Brazil has a big crop too, and it is being marketed now. Zimbabwe, on the other hand, has what was expected to be a slightly bigger crop than in 2014 (which itself had been much bigger than the crop in 2013). But heavy rains have so reduced the production potential that the 485 million pound target may not be achieved. Marketing in Zimbabwe will begin soon. Production loss from the weather there could still conceivably affect our contracts.
Burley production totaled 213 million pounds, according to USDA. That was one percent more than the forecast and 11 percent above last year. Growers were believed to have harvested 101,500 acres, up three percent from the previous forecast and three percent above 2013. Yields averaged 2,100 pounds per acre, 52 pounds below the previous forecast but 156 pounds above a year ago. Note: There is considerable disagreement with the production estimate for this type, with credible suggestions made that around 200 million pounds would be closer to the mark.
Among our competitors, meanwhile, the outlook is mixed. Brazil has a big crop too, and it is being marketed now. Zimbabwe, on the other hand, has what was expected to be a slightly bigger crop than in 2014 (which itself had been much bigger than the crop in 2013). But heavy rains have so reduced the production potential that the 485 million pound target may not be achieved. Marketing in Zimbabwe will begin soon. Production loss from the weather there could still conceivably affect our contracts.
The rain in Malawi has been even heavier. Some plantings have been washed away entirely, and the rest are showing the effects of too much precipitation. "Leaching of nitrogenous fertilizer is an issue, and curing the leaf in this weather is problematic," said the Malawi Tobacco Commission. Most of Malawi's tobacco is burley, and it produces flavor leaf. So a major shortfall there could improve the market for American burley.
Reports from the fields: Greenhouse seeding is virtually complete in Florida and Georgia, and some plants are up and growing, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist...There have been very few reports of greenhouse seeding in North Carolina, says Loren Fisher, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. He expects seeding to get going in about 10 days...Seeding of dark tobacco greenhouses in Kentucky and Tennessee might begin in late February, but the bulk will take place from March 15, says Andy Bailey, dark tobacco specialist. He thinks plantings for 2015 could be down, but only by a few percentage points. The market appears relatively stable.
Organic to the rescue? There is a little good news from the organic tobacco front. Farmers have told me that Santa Fe has increased its contract volumes, although I haven't confirmed that yet. Also, a new company based in Switzerland has reportedly contracted for a substantial amount of organic American flue-cured and burley for 2015, which would be good news indeed. However, I can't tell you much else now--it has been very difficult to get information from this company. Hopefully, I can provide more details in future issues.
Presidio now labeled. Valent has obtained a tobacco label for Presidio for control of black shank, and you can use it this season. Extension specialists strongly recommend that it be used in rotation or combination with an alternate chemical, like Ridomil Gold or Ultra Flourish. Presidio can also be used to control blue mold.
An Expo in Tennessee: The Tennessee-Kentucky Tobacco Expo will be held on Tuesday, February 3, from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. at the Robertson County Fairgrounds, 4635 Highway 41 North, Springfield, Tn. There will be a trade show and GAP recertification at 8 a.m. and 1:30 (and additional sessions may be held as needed). Also, Andy Bailey, K-T Extension tobacco specialist, will speak on dark and burley varieties and Eric Walker, K-T Extension tobacco specialist, will speak on managing tobacco diseases.
A really big show in North Carolina: The Southern Farm Show will take place beginning 8 a.m., February 4, at the N.C. State Fair Grounds in Raleigh and end February 6 with the annual meeting of the N.C. Tobacco Growers Assn. A list of exhibits of special interest to tobacco farmers follows.
Jim Graham Bldg.
- 221 (also 8204) Taylor Mfg. Curing barns and wood furnaces.
- 222 Evans Mactavish Agricraft and World Tobacco. Bulk fertilizer handling equipment. Curing barns.
- 227 Kelley Mfg. Co. Agricultural equipment.
- 704 (also 8131) Agri Supply. Agricultural materials.
- 807 Mechanical Transplanter Co. Transplanters, seeding equipment.
- 808-9 BulkTobac (Gas Fired Products). Curing equipment and controls, poultry brooders, pig heating, space heaters.
Kerr Scott Bldg.
- 1002 TriEst Ag Group (Formerly Hendrix and Dail). Fumigation supplies.
- 1005 Flue Cured Tobacco Services. Curing controls.
- 1015 Yara North America. Fertility products.
- 1104 GoldLeaf Seed Co. Tobacco seed.
- 1114 Transplant Systems. Greenhouse systems.
- 1116 Cross Creek Seed. Tobacco seed.
- 1121 AAA Scale Co.
- 1201 Carolina Greenhouse & Soil Company.
- 1202 Reddick Equipment Company Inc.
- 1302 Mid-Atlantic Irrigation.
Exposition Bldg.
- 3127 (also 8611) Benchmark Buildings & Irrigation Inc. Pre-fabricated metal buildings, transplanters and irrigation equipment.
- 3135 Southern Container Corporation of Wilson. Bale sheets and packaging.
- 3522 First Products Inc. Fertilizer boxes for cultivators and tool bars.
- 3605 MarCo Mfg. Tobacco machinery.
- 3714 Cureco, Inc. Curing controls.
Tent 1
- 5007 ABI Irrigation. Irrigation equipment.
- 5023 Walters Air Assist Plant Release System. Plant release system.
- 5110 Britt Technical Services, Inc. Rotem Curing Controls.
Scott Tent
- 7025 Drexel Chemical Company. Sucker control chemicals.
- 7323 Berger. Plant growing mixtures.
- 7327 Teeterville Garage & Weighing Systems. Moisture controllers for tobacco barns and weighing scales.
Outdoors
- 8003 Equipmax. Tobacco spray equipment.
- 8122 Carolina Tobacco Services. Curing barns, mechanical harvesters, heat exchangers.
- 8204 Wilson Manufacturing. Farm trailers. Also in the exhibit will be a Taylor Tobacco Barn.
- 8217 Granville Equipment. Tobacco machinery.
- 8301 World Tobacco. Tobacco machinery.
- 8313 De Cloet SRL. Tobacco machinery.
- 8701 Tytun Ltd. Bulk flue-curing barns.
- 8712 Long Tobacco Barn Co. Bulk tobacco curing barns.
- 8715 Evencure Systems. Curing controls.
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UPCOMING GAP RECERTIFICATION MEETINGS
KENTUCKY (Burley)
Dark (Tennessee and Kentucky)
TENNESSEE
Burley
INDIANA (All burley)
OHIO (All burley)
NORTH CAROLINA (Flue-cured)
GEORGIA (Flue-cured)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Flue-cured)
VIRGINIA (Flue-cured)
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