COULD BURLEY LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY?

 

Dry weather is interfering with taking down and stripping the burley that remains hanging in the barns, like this one in the Kentucky Bluegrass. USDA reported that 76% of the Kentucky crop had been stripped by November 24. In Tennessee, USDA’s recent production estimate of 4.6 million pounds of burley seems credible, says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. “That would be in the general range of what we have had the last few years,” he says. Farmers had a very good crop in the field, but some may have been delayed in stripping because of very dry conditions that made it difficult to get the leaf in case. “But we have gotten some rains that last couple of weeks.” Kentuckians are having the same problem. “We had a good crop coming out of the fields but now there is a fear that it might cure up light,” says Joe Cain, the executive director of the new Kentucky Burley & Dark Tobacco Producers Association (KBDTPA). “We have had some dry weather with no fogs or rain.” Most of the crop is in the barn now. Disappearance of burley has left East Tennessee looking a lot different. It used to be that if you drove through the countryside in the eastern part of Tennessee in the growing season, you would frequently come across burley patches. No more, says Richmond. “We have maybe five counties that are significant in burley, but usually there are just four or five growers in each.” In 1982, there were 4,100 growers in Greene County, which borders North Carolina. This year, there might have been eight. Letters from Readers Two Opinions on Why H2A Wage Rates are Unsustainable The biggest cost on the farm is labor, which appears to be on an upward trend [via H2A program rates]. It is unsustainable. N.C. is approaching $16 for differential wage rates. It seems very interesting that we all have rallied for change, and now when we get change, it includes not one good thing for the farmer. Every aspect of this change has a negative impact for the family farm. How did they change the rules? And why are North Carolinians paying over a dollar an hour more than bordering states South Carolina, Georgia and Florida? Rodney Jackson, Autryville, N.C. I feel that the H2A labor cost is the main threat to the future of American tobacco production. I could easily grow many more acres if I brought in migrant labor, but I don’t see how I could generate enough income to make it worth it. We use all local labor now. The H2A program is a problem, financially as well as culturally.  Anthony McGary, Breckinridge County, Ky.  Editor's Note: If you have a thought you would like to share, please feel free to email it to me at chrisbickers@gmail.com. DATES TO REMEMBER 51st Tobacco Workers' Conference, January 15 – 18, at the Convention Center in Knoxville, Tennessee. For more information, go to the official website at www.twconference.com.  Southern Farm Show, January 31 through February 2, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. each day. Admission is free. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., Friday, February 2, at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh. Tobacco farmer leads Kentucky agriculture: A former burley grower has been elected Agriculture Commissioner in Kentucky. Jonathan Shell (photo) of Lancaster in Garrard County grew up on a burley farm that at its peak produced 200 acres of tobacco. Shell, a Republican, will take office January 2. He succeeds Ryan Quarles, who completed his term limit of eight years after being elected twice.

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Workers from the Oxford (N.C.)Tobacco Research Station sweep up some of the last flue-cured tobacco produced this season. Reportedly high in quality, it was gathered, then looped, cured and sold at a demonstration auction at the North Carolina State Fair (Photo by Christopher Bickers). A CROP TO BE THANKFUL FOR You know, I wonder if we might look back on the 2023 flue-cured crop some day and think it was one of the the best of the Twenty First Century. Maybe not, but it was a good one. Here is how  Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist, characterized it. “On average, in North Carolina, we had a solid crop from a yield and quality standpoint, and it gives us good momentum for 2024. 2023 was not without its challenges, with adverse weather a major factor. But our crop stood up against heat and drought very well, thanks to some timely showers." It is predicted that the Southeast will have above average rain this winter, he says. "That is good news," says Vann. "It’s dry across the state now, and we need some ponds to fill back up!" Late in the flue-cured market, prices were steady, and quality remained good. A wide variety of grades was coming to the market. “Farmers are selling their pickings as well as upperstalk grades,” said one warehouseman. “Some low quality tobacco left over from earlier in the season is also being brought to market.” It appeared that any sound tobacco from this crop found a home somewhere. A good burley crop is also headed for market, but as it stands now, none will be sold at auction. The only auction that operated last season will not operate at all in 2023-24, says its owner, Jerry Franklin of Danville, Ky., had moved his Farmers Warehouse from Danville to Springfield two seasons ago. But this year, he was outbid in his effort to rent the Springfield warehouse again, and he was unable to find a suitable replacement. Now, his advice is to use up all the contracts that you have access to. But he is afraid there is some burley out there that is not attached to a contract. Rankin may be able to help: He still has some access to cigarette manufactures and is willing to take as much uncontracted tobacco there as he can. Note though that it wouldn't be sold on auction. Call Rankin if you are interested (859 319 1400) and watch this space: There is a talk that a major burley broker may be able to organize some sort of marketing strategy. I will keep you posted. MORE FROM THE OCTOBER PRODUCTION REPORT FROM USDA 2023 estimate, percentage change from 2022  FLUE-CURED:                                                                   North Carolina—248.6 million pounds, no change. Virginia—30.72 million pounds, up 5.8%. Georgia--12.6 million pounds, no change. South Carolina--13.34 million pounds, up 14.6%.  Total U.S. 305.2 million pounds, up less than one percent.  BURLEY: Kentucky--55.35 million pounds, up 5.7%.  Pennsylvania--2.53 million pounds, down 22.7%  Tennessee--4.5 million pounds, up 7.4%  Virginia--420 thousand pounds, down 16%.  North Carolina--240 thousand pounds, down 12.7%.  Total US burley--63 million pounds, up seven percent. FIRE-CURED:  Kentucky--22 million pounds, down 28.7% Tennessee--16 million pounds, down 20.3% Virginia 220,000 pounds, down 33.3% Total US fired-cured--38.3 million pounds, down 25 percent. DARK AIR-CURED: Kentucky--9.99 million pounds, down 34.7%. Tennessee--3 million pounds, down 68%                                        Total US--13 million pounds, down 47 percent. PA SEEDLEAF:  Pennsylvania--9.6 million pounds, up less than one percent.       SOUTHERN MARYLAND: Pennsylvania--135,000 pounds, down 41 percent.  ALL TOBACCO U. S.: 429.4 million pounds, down four percent. SPOTLIGHT   WOULD ADDITIONAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON FOREIGN BURLEY HELP?  By Jim Starkey, retired agricultural economist A response to "Competing with imports for the domestic market," TFN November 1 2023   When the burley [Tariff rate] quota was originally set, it was set at a very restrictive level compared with imports at the time. It did not allow for any new countries over the original ones originally included in the quota. This means that current major world producers like Mozambique are excluded. At the time only Brazil and Malawi utilized a significant part of their quotas. I haven't seen the current numbers so do not know whether this has changed but I don't know why it would have. As I pointed out earlier, new producers cannot import into the U.S. and I doubt there has been significant expansion of production and sales from the countries that have quotas. That imports are higher this year than last is an irrelevant comparison as the lower levels last year are probably due to production shortages abroad last year which limited countries sales to the U.S. to less than their traditional levels.   The fact that world burley production is expanding while U.S production is declining suggests the world market may be limited for high quality, high price/cost burley; the countries which are expanding produce lower quality, lower priced tobacco. I don't believe additional import restrictions would change that fact or result in any significant increase in U.S. Burley production. A NOTE TO READERS If you haven't signed on to receive this newsletter regularly, or if you need to change an address or add a friend or family member name to the list, please email a subscription request to chris bic kers @ gmail.com. Include your phone number and your affiliation with tob-acco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer, speci-alist or as Extension agent.

The supply at flue-cured auctions was short, but not as short as shown at the annual "mock auction" at the N.C State Fair on October 20, auctioneered by Ted Hinson. Photo courtesy NCDA&CS. SHORT SUPPLY OF FLUE-CURED KEEPS LATE-SEASON PRICES STRONG Buyer demand is definitely keeping the price up at the American Tobacco Exchange auction warehouse in Wilson, N.C. “We are seeing the best prices since we started conducting live sales here years ago,” says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager. “Prices are high for all grades. The range is about $1 to $2.30 per pound. Averages per grade have remained about the same since the beginning of auctions”…Now, volume is down, he says. “Our sales are running about two thirds the volume they were earlier.” But ATE will continue to sell as long as there is tobacco that needs a home. “I suspect we will sell right up till Thanksgiving,” says Faulkner. The situation is a little different in Western North Carolina. The crop is just about complete, and Old Belt Tobacco Sales of Rural Hall, N.C., will hold its final sale on November 7. “Our sales volume is down from last year,” says Dennis White, owner of the Old Belt warehouse. “It was a short crop: There weren’t enough plants, then considerable replanting was needed. And it ended up being late.” Another factor was that receiving stations made very few rejections, at least from the Piedmont crop. So there wasn’t that much to sell but demand was strong as in the East, so prices were very good, says White. . “Good orange Leaf brought $2.30 a pound, bale after bale. Good second quality went for $2.20 to 2.25, and third quality brought $2.10.” The last little bit of flue-cured in the area was harvested by October 29, White says. In fact, it appears that all of this crop in N.C. had been harvested by Halloween, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. "In fact, I'm willing to bet that north of 90% was finished by the time the State Fair ended [October 22]." Intense cold the night of November 1 probably killed any plants that were still in the field. Growers continue to report favorable marketing opportunities for their tobacco, Vann says.  Tobacco specialists appointed: The N.C. Extension tobacco team has two new members--Daisy Ahumada, plant pathologist who will cover corn and cotton, along with tobacco; and Jeff Dorffman, agricultural economist, who will be providing expertise in the area of tobacco forecasting and outlook, similar to the recently retired Blake Brown. SPOTLIGHT WHAT THE COMING YEAR HOLDS FOR BURLEY Derived from 2023 Tobacco Update (with some editing) By Will Snell, Kentucky Extension Ag Economist  While burley demand is shrinking worldwide as blended-cigarette sales decline, the August 2023 Universal Leaf estimated that Africa will go from a burley crop totaling 278 million pounds in 2022 to 379 million pounds in 2023 and 445 million pounds in 2024.  World burley production is forecast in that same report to increase by more than 40% in 2024 vs. 2022, with U.S. burley production remaining stagnant in 2024 vs. 2023.  On the trade front, tight global supplies are moving limited supplies of U.S. burley overseas. But U.S. burley exports nevertheless will remain at negligible levels (13 million pounds in 2022). Imports of foreign burley into the U.S. remain a challenge for the domestic burley sector (73 million pounds in 2022). So far in 2023 (through June), U.S. burley imports are 57% higher compared to the same period last year. In recent years, U.S. manufacturers and dealers have imported more burley leaf than U.S. burley growers have actually produced, resulting in import use by domestic manufacturers remaining at over 50%.  Tobacco organizations are re-viewing policy options to address this trade imbalance. On the product side, U.S. cigarette sales continue to slump as consumers switch to alternative nicotine products. After falling 8.7% in 2022, U.S. cigarette production is down 8% so far in 2023 with consumers shifting to non-premium brands amid inflationary pressures on smoker purchasing decisions. Sidebar: Competing with imports for the domestic market In recent years, U.S. manufacturers and dea-lers imported more burley than U.S. burley growers have produced. This has resulted in import use by domestic manufacturers remain-ing at over 50%. One possible solution: Im-port quota restrictions were put in place in 1996 when U.S. ciga-rette production hit re-cord levels. These im-port quotas have never since been adjusted, and American cigarette production dropped by 75%.

 

HARVEST OF THE 2023 CROP IS NEARING COMPLETION

 

Tying up the 2023 flue-cured crop: The North Carolina State Fair featured an old-time tobacco-looping contest at the fair’s Heritage Circle on October 13. The leaf--freshly harvested--was provided by the nearby Oxford Tobacco Research Station and was among the last flue-cured tobacco harvested this year. Photo by Christopher Bickers. The field season will shortly come to an end, with this crop almost entirely harvested now, except in the more northern sections of the Tobacco Belt and in the Piedmont. I surveyed Extension tobacco specialists and county agents to get a picture of what tobacco remains where in the states where tobacco remains in the field. My report appears below. But first, let me share with you the highlights of USDA's October Crop Report, divided by type and showing the projected volume for 2023 compared by percentage to 2022. FLUE-CURED: 305.2 million pounds, up less than one percent.  BURLEY: 63 million pounds, up seven percent. FIRE-CURED: 38.3 million pounds, down 25 percent. DARK AIR-CURED: 13 million pounds, down 47 percent. PA SEEDLEAF: 9.6 million pounds, up less than one percent.      SOUTHERN MARYLAND: 135,000 pounds, down 41 percent.   ALL TOBACCO U. S.: 429.4 million pounds, down four percent. Let me crunch these numbers a little and I will provide my analysis in a future issue. STATE BY STATE REPORTS FLUE-CURED In North Carolina, the 2023 season is winding down, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist, and almost all the crop is out of the field. “I’ve spoken to a number of County Agents across the tobacco belt in the last week," Vann says. "The majority east of Raleigh tell me their growers are finished. West of Raleigh we probably have about two weeks left, but some are done. We’ve got to be 80-85% finished. It appears the weather will hold and frost shouldn’t be an issue." So far this seems like a good crop. "It is my opinion that this season was the one we’ve been looking for. Most farmers in N.C. are reporting a higher yield this season and relatively few devastating pest problems, compared to recent seasons. In addition, the market seems to be strong at the current time. Hopefully, this gives us some momentum and a positive mindset for the 2024 season." In Virginia, harvest of flue-cured in the Southside is nearly complete, says Stephen Barts, Extension agent in Pittsylvania County, Va. “As of October 11, less than 10 percent remained in the field," he estimated. “The large majority of farmers have finished. There will probably be a little harvesting going on to the end of October, but very little”...The weather conditions were challenging in Virginia this year, he said. “No one ever really plans on weather like we had this year. We had drought early followed by excessive moisture and unseasonably cold temperatures the week of Fathers Day then we got back into drought conditions." The quality has generally been good and in some areas excellent. "Yield is going to be a big issue for us. It will definitely be below average. My guess is that we are going to be 10% or maybe 15% below the five-year average of 2,450 pounds.” BURLEY In Tennessee, most farmers have finished harvest or are finishing up now, says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. “Any who haven’t finished are anxious to get this season behind them. We are close to last year’s burley volume. It may come in at four to 4.5 million pounds.” There was some frustration among farmers with ongoing disease problems like mold and angular leafspot. In Kentucky, harvest appears to be over, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. “I can’t imagine any burley is left in the field. Most of it is in the barn now. Some of our growers have started stripping.” Buying stations will open in November. DARK & WRAPPER In the Black Patch of Kentucky and Tennessee, harvest is all but complete, says Andy Bailey, Extension dark tobacco specialist for Kentucky and Tennessee. “We might have a little still out in the field, maybe 3%. Most years we go till about October 20, but I don't know if we are going to make it this year. (As of October 11) Bailey estimated that perhaps 97% had been harvested. “We are stripping early crops now,” he said. “Nothing has been marketed yet. That will start next week when we start marketing Connecticut broadleaf”…By the way, the color is looking good on the Connecticut production. “It benefited from being harvested and out of the field before the storms in August…Volume in the Black Patch by type, according to Bailey: Dark fire-cured will probably be down in volume at least 25% from 2022. USDA has projected all dark fire-cured production this year at 38 million pounds, but Bailey doesn’t think it will amount to more than 30 million pounds. Dark air cured volume has been projected by USDA at 12.4 million pounds but Bailey thinks it will probably not be over 10 million; Connecticut broadleaf may have been planted on 500 acres in the Black Patch this year and if it did well and we have a 2,000 pound/acre average yield, we may have a million pound production, says Bailey. “Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of wrapper tobacco in some crops so its price will be lower than it might have been.”  What lies ahead for the dark types? --Following decades of expansion, U.S. snuff sales were down 5.5% in 2022 and are de-clining by over 5% so far in 2023. --Sale volumes for the U.S. smokeless to-bacco category are indi-cated to be up by more than 4% over the past twelve months. But this includes the rapidly ex- panding nicotine pouch sales (up over 50% so far in 2023). --These products re-quire significantly less Kentucky & Tennessee dark tobacco.

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