Harvest is nearly complete [see below], and it doesn’t look like any miracles are going to arise that would favorably affect yield and production. Both are going to be way down.
NORTH CAROLINA Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler,, said Friday, “I would say that we will end up with a 60% tobacco crop [in N.C.], along with a 40% corn crop. The thing that will be remembered about this season is not just that we had two hurricanes, but that before they got here, we already were in the middle of a disaster.” It was doubly unfortunate for tobacco growers, said Troxler, because there was unusual demand for flue-cured. “We could have sold a lot more if we had it to sell.”
VIRGINIA: Flue-cured harvest should be finished in a matter of days if weather does not interfere, says Stephen Barts, Extension agent in Pittsylvania County, Va…As of Thursday, he thought 3% to 5% of the crop was still in the field…The Southside didn’t suffer significantly from Helene except for the rain, but was a factor. “The central part of the state got 10 to 15 inches of rain. There was a five-day period when no work at all could be done. It was just too wet. That much rain just brings field work to a halt,” Barts says...Yield will definitely be lower on flue-cured than last year. Barts estimates the state yield at 2,300 pounds per acre as a result of tobacco that never made it to the barn due to several severe storms and hurricanes. If planted acreage was roughly 13,000 acres, as estimated, then state production will come in at around 30 million pounds…Note: The burley-producing area of Southwest Virginia survived the floods reasonably well, he adds.
GEORGIA-FLORIDA farmers have completed harvest. A 55% crop has been predicted.
SOUTH CAROLINA farmers have completed harvest.
TENNESSEE experienced dry weather and mild temperatures last week, allowing harvest activities to continue, says USDA. There is some concern over quality and yield after damages from the recent storms. Moisture levels had increased after heavy rains from the hurricane, but now some counties in the central and particularly in the central southern region are progressing towards drought conditions again. As of October 10, several central counties were under abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions…Through October 13, tobacco cutting (all types) was 91% complete, according to USDA.
KENTUCKY harvest proceeded at a good pace due to the very dry conditions last week (Most parts of the state saw no rainfall at all). By October 13 harvest of tobacco was substantially complete, according to USDA. Stripping was estimated at 21%. Houseburn was reported as 1% moderate, 21% light, with 78% experiencing none. The lack of moisture has prevented houseburn from being a major issue so far, said the agency.
The price for flue-cured is generally holding strong on auction markets in North Carolina. One surprise: "Low and middle quality tobacco are selling as high as they did when the auction season began [in August],” says Kenneth Kelly, owner of the Horizon Ltd. warehouse in Wilson. “But some good quality leaf is off a bit.” That may indicate that buyers feel comfortable that there will be enough of this style of tobacco. Quality has generally held up. ”The hurricanes didn’t lower yield in Eastern North Carolina as much as expected a few weeks ago. But with all our bad weather, our volume will definitely be down from what was expected earlier in the season,” says Kelly. “Most farms in this area are short of pounds”…Even though the crop is short, Kelly says sales will have to continue into November…USDA estimated that as of October 13, 93% of the N.C. flue-cured crop had been harvested. By the same date, 64% of the state’s small burley crop had been harvested, it said.
When less definitely isn’t more: The USDA issued its October crop report on October 11. As previously announced, it left out estimates of flue-cured production in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida and of burley in Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. I don’t know how valuable such a truncated report will be to anybody. But for the moment I am going to report those states that still participate in the survey program, and we can review the whole situation few months from now.
State-by-state, compared to 2023 final:
FLUE-CURED:
North Carolina--222.3 million pounds, down 14.4%.
Virginia--25.8 million pounds, down 14%.
BURLEY:
Kentucky--50 million pounds, down 11.8%
Tennessee—five million pounds, up 18%.
FIRE-CURED:
Kentucky—13.6 million pounds, down 26.2%.
Tennessee—10.3 million pounds, down 33.3%.
DARK AIR-CURED:
Kentucky--8.3 million pounds, down 8.7%.
Tennessee—2.4 million pounds, down 20%.