Caption: Some of the last flue-cured produced in North Carolina this season was "sold" at a mock auction at the N.C State Fair on October 25. Since then, the rest of the flue crop has been marketed, and burley and dark tobaccos are now moving into marketing channels. Photo courtesy of the N.C. Department of Agriculture.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE BURLEY MARKET It was another challenging year for Kentucky Tennessee tobacco farmers in 2024, ranging from extreme weather events to dramatically changing tobacco product markets. According to the latest USDA crop report, U.S. burley production for this year is pegged at 55 million pounds (vs 65 million pounds in 2023), with U.S. dark fire-cured estimated to be 24 million pounds (vs 36 million pounds in 2023) and U.S. dark air-cured expected to total 10.8 million pounds (vs 12.1 million pounds in 2023). "Good but not exceptional": Burley growers should find they have a good but not exceptional crop upon marketing their 2024 crop. There are some curing quality issues and pockets where yields were disappointing, but overall prices will likely improve modestly over last year’s prices. But heightened labor and other higher input costs will continue to erode profit margins. This may be the first time since 1955 that the value of tobacco production in Kentucky has fallen below $200 million. On a positive note, the U.S. burley sector has seen some rebound in leaf exports. But U.S. burley, like U.S. dark tobacco, will still be dependent primarily on sales of domestic tobacco. Burley supplies remain tight globally, but the supply/demand balance is not as tight as it has been in recent years because of a significant decline in U.S. cigarette sales. Historically, U.S. cigarette sales have declined at a 3-4% annual pace, but the decline has accelerated in recent years to falling nearly 10% annually. The U.S. dark tobacco industry continues to be plagued by the entry of nicotine pouches, which is growing at an annual 30%+ pace compared to 6-8% annual decline among major snuff products. --Source: Will Snell, Ky. Extension economist A few more notes on agronomy in 2024  Burley: Prospects for a good finish for the current burley crop are generally favorable. Mild to moderate drought conditions were observed in Kentucky and Tennessee throughout the growing season. Fortunately, many growers received just enough rainfall to produce burley of above average yields. Dry weather in August and September meant harvesting was able to progress well until the remnants of Hurricane Helene blew through in late September. But damage to burley from Helene was relatively minor, and in fact the lingering moisture associated with the storm greatly improved the color of tobacco in mid-cure at that time. Continued dry weather through October and into November resulted in later crops having some high color. Farmers are advised to let those crops hang as long as possible before stripping. That will help bring down the color and hopefully improve grading. --Source: Bob Pearce, Ky. Extension specialist......... Dark: The 2024 dark tobacco crop in west Ky. and Tn. started with a very wet May. There were only a few days in the beginning and end of the month suitable for transplanting tobacco. As a result, most of the crop was transplanted late, in June and even into the first few days of July. From late June until the end of July, the region had good, timely rainfall with minimal disease. These six weeks of good growing conditions resulted in a good dark tobacco crop for most growers. Angular leaf spot damage was minimal compared to 2023. Weather conditions turned very dry from the first of August until significant rain came from Hurricane Helene in late Septem-ber. These dry conditions during early curing resulted in less than average quality (lighter color) for dark air-cured crops harvested in August, and even lighter color with less smoke finish in some dark-fired crops harvested in August. Crops harvested in September through early October had more favorable curing conditions and better color. Dark crops that are light in color will benefit from hanging longer in the barn. Yields from dark-fired and dark air-cured tobacco will generally be good to above average this year, although overall quality may in some cases be a bit less than average due to light color. --Source: Andy Bailey, Ky. Extension specialist........ In other tobacco news....... Ruined facility replaced. The Burley Stabilization Corp. is now using a new marketing center at 200 Charles Ralph Dr. in Springfield, Tn., about five miles from its previous facility on Bill Jones Industrial Dr. That facility was destroyed by a tornado last December. The auctions for flue-cured turned out well this season, says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager for American Tobacco Exchanger in Wilson, N.C. "The quality was good, very usable," he says. "The crop was short, maybe 20 to 25%. But at one point we were afraid it might be worse. Growers did a good job of holding their tobacco in the field until they could get it harvested." Buyers didn't get all they wanted, especially on certain grades. But Faulkner says it seemed they were pleased with what they got. He noted that clean, clear, bright style tobacco ran out toward the end of the season. Also, the quality deteriorated toward the end, as it does a lot of years. "The auction did extremely well, with strong participation from the buyers." Prices ranged from $1.85 to $2.55 a pound. The last auction sales took place on November 13. How much flue-cured in 2024? Before the weather turned bad, the flue-cured crop was estimated at around 330-340 million pounds. "[Now,] TGANC expects the final delivery will fall in the range of 230-240 million pounds belt wide," says Graham Boyd, executive vice president of the association. DATES TO REMEMBER Annual Meeting, Kentucky/Tennessee Burley & Dark Tobacco Producer Association, January 16, at Sloan Convention Center. Bowling Green, Kentucky. 9 a.m.--3:45 p.m. Central Time. Annual Meeting, Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina, 10 a.m., EST, Friday, February 7, at the N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh (in connection with Southern Farm Show). Southern Farm Show, February 5 through 7, N.C. State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, starting at 9 a.m. EST each day. Admission is free.