JUNE RAINS BLAMED FOR SHORT EASTERN-N.C. CROP

 

Recently cut burley plants wilting in the field in Mitchell County, N.C. Through September 19, 71 percent of Kentucky burley, 75 percent of Tennessee burley and 50 percent of N.C. burley had been harvested, according to USDA. Photo courtesy of N.C. State University. FLUE-CURED In eastern North Carolina, the prospects for flue-cured look dismal. There had been hope among the more optimistic observers of U.S. leaf (this writer included) that the yield in the Eastern Belt might somehow rebound from the weather problems of last summer. It didn’t, and as the last of the leaf makes its way to the market, a shortfall has become a certainty. --The downfall of tobacco in the east began when precipitation in June hit record levels of 15 to 24 inches, followed by intense heat for two weeks in July when the heat index reached 105 degrees, followed by plenty of rain since, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. “Some fields were drowned to the extent that farmers abandoned them. That will have quite an effect on overall yield”. --Prices at flue-cured auctions have been steady so far, with good prices even for lower quality grades. “Pickings sold really well,” says Kenneth Kelly, owner of Horizon Ltd. warehouse of Wilson, N.C. “Now, we are beginning to see a trend in our leaf offerings from lower stalk to upper stalk leaf, and it seems there will be as good a demand for the upstalk. But I don’t have a good feel as to where the price is going to settle.” --You would think the price will be pretty good considering the short supply. “North and northwest of Wilson, we have a big crop, in good condition, because of opportune rains,” says one source in the Wilson market. “But east and southeast of Wilson the pounding rains took the weight right out of the tobacco. It never made a good weight.” This source knows of some good farmers in the east who were not able to produce more than 50 percent of a crop this year. “So there is very unlikely to be enough Eastern Belt leaf to go around.” --There’s been another crop problem in the east, says the source. “We are getting leaf now from a two-week hot spell we had in August. It dried the leaf so that it is not as clean and in some cases has rim burn.” --For the state as a whole, USDA estimates production of flue-cured of 240 million pounds, 30 percent more than a year ago. That seems extremely unlikely, but Vann thinks upwards of 200 million pounds might still be possible...Harvest of eastern N.C. flue-cured should be complete very soon, says Vann. In the Piedmont of North Carolina, around Greensboro, much of the flue-cured crop has been harvested, and it all might be in the barn in a week or 10 days, says Vann. The tobacco in the rest of the Old Belt has a longer way to go but has a good chance of being finished before the first frost date about three weeks from now. This area was much less affected by the bad weather of 2021 and a normal yield is expected. WRAPPER In Connecticut and  Massachusetts, produc-duction of Connecticut broadleaf will be down this season, says Jim LaMondia, Connecticut Agriculture Experiment Station plant pathologist. "But it won’t be for lack of effort on the part of the growers.” Plantings are probably the same or a little higher than in recent years, between 3,000 and 4,000 acres in the two states. But the yield and production will be down. The crop is not doing well on many farms, says LaMondia. “We have had way too much rain with a lot of variation within the valley. In places, the crop was drowned or stunted or both. Then we had wet and humid weather while we were curing, which lead to some storage mold.” Harvest is pretty much complete, but not much has been taken out of the barn. Already, though, a substantial part of this crop has been lost during the field season or to post-harvest problems. LaMondia doesn’t have a yield estimate yet, but while some crops look good, overall yields will definitely be lowered by weather conditions. The question of the day: LaMondia doesn’t know why manufacturers’ are looking for new places to grow broadleaf. “There are still growers here interested in growing it.” BURLEY In Tennessee, burley harvest is coming to an end, despite some rain delays. “We just need the spigot turned off,” says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. Much of the crop is in the barn, and the curing season has gone fairly well so far. But Richmond doesn’t know of any that has been stripped yet. He doesn’t have an estimate of production for Tennessee burley yet but notes that USDA estimated 4.5 million pounds in its last production report, nearly four percent more than in 2020. ***** In other tobacco news... Little change in USDA projections: The USDA September Crop Report figures for tobacco issued on the twelfth were very similar to those in August. A version of the new data showing production by type-- and by state for flue and burley--with percentage change from a year ago follows.   Flue-cured ·        North Carolina—240 million pounds, up 30 percent; ·        Virginia—30 million pounds, up 14 percent; ·        Georgia--16 million pounds, down 17 percent; and ·        South Carolina—16 million pounds, up 90 percent. ·        All U.S. flue-cured—304.400 million pounds, up 28 percent. Burley ·        Kentucky—74 million pounds, up 2 percent; ·        Pennsylvania--7.56 million pounds, up 4 percent; ·        Tennessee—4.5 million pounds, down 3 percent; ·        Virginia—612,000 pounds, down 10 percent; ·        North Carolina—493,000 pounds, down 6 percent. ·        All U.S. burley—87.165 million pounds, up 2 percent.   Fire-cured--47.5 million pounds, up 26 percent. Dark air-cured—25.78 million pounds, up 6 percent. Pennsylvania seedleaf –5.635 million pounds, no change. Southern Maryland—One million pounds, up 8 percent.   Whose yield improved since August? A few states had a better yield than had been projected in the August report, indicating good growing conditions in August: o  Pennsylvania burley yield was up slightly from 2,600 pounds to 2,700 pounds, o  Pennsylvania seedleaf grown in Pennsylvania was up just a bit in yield, from 2,400 to 2,450 pounds, o  Kentucky fire-cured was up 10 percent from 3,000 pounds to 3,300 pounds, and o  Kentucky dark air-cured yield was up from 2,300 to 2,500 pounds. o  Georgia flue-cured, meanwhile, was projected down from 2,300 pounds to 2,000 pounds.   The government’s summation: 2021 tobacco production of all types is forecast at 469 million pounds, down slightly from last month but up 20 percent from 2020. Area harvested is down slightly from USDA’s previous forecast but up 13 percent from last year. Yield for the 2021 crop year is forecast at 2,102 pounds per acre, up 6 pounds from last month and 136 pounds above last year.