International Leaf Markets: The shortfall of supply (all types) has been estimated at 1 million kilograms, says Iqbal Lambat, c.e.o. of the leaf dealer Star Tobacco International and one of the most astute observers of the world tobacco scene. "The shortfall has been driven primarily by short crops in most origins and by a sharp increase in leaf inventory holding by the major multinationals," Lambat says. Acute shortages were experienced in Brazil, Argentina, Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan. Prices for international tobaccos have experienced an increase of at least 30% in 2022 vs. 2021. But it may not be enough. "This shortage is expected to continue in 2023 and most likely 2024 too as farmers are unable to cope with the steep increase in the cost of fertilizers and energy," says Lampat. "The higher prices in the international markets reflect 'the new norm' and a reduction is not foreseen in the future."
Flue-cured: A plan for flue-cured growers in 2023-- "Plant as many contracts as you can obtain, but I don't suggest overplanting," says Rick Smith, c.e.o. of Independent Leaf Tobacco Co. in Wilson. "I don't see contract prices going up much." The 2022 crop was short, but considering the weather problems it faced, it was just about miraculous that so much was usable. "It seemed that every bale that made it to the market was bought by somebody. And it was surprising that there was very little low-grade tobacco in this crop." Don't expect the same experiences next season.
Burley and Dark: Despite current demand expectations, (especially for burley), Kentucky farmers will have an opportunity again to increase acreage in 2023 because of tight supplies, says Will Snell. Kentucky Extension agricultural economist. “[But whether they do or not] will depend on contract prices and the profit opportunities available from alternative ag enterprises.” Labor costs as always will be a big factor. “The H2A wage rate is forecast to increase from $13.89/hour to $14.26/hour, putting additional upward pressure on production costs amidst stagnant yields,” says Snell. Without better profit expectations, there will likely be more attrition in the number of farms growing tobacco in Kentucky in 2023. That could cause problems for tobacco companies attempting to boost inventories, he added.
Kentucky’s tobacco production (all types) is forecast by USDA to be 10% lower in the crop now being marketed. - Burley production was projected down 21%.
- Dark fire-cured production rebounded nearly 9% as a major buyer increased contract volumes by more than 50%, following an abrupt cut two years ago.
- Dark air production was relatively flat.
- Cigar tobacco acres declined.
Demand for U.S. burley continues to fall as less expensive foreign leaf has induced U.S. burley exports to plummet while the burley import share remains relatively high.
First state tobacco meeting of the year: The GA-FL GAP Tobacco Training for 2023 will take place on January 2, 9:30 am to 10 am, UGA Tifton Campus Conference Center. Ends with lunch. Free but please register. Call J. Michael Moore at 229 392 6424. GAP TRAINING MEETINGS IN JANUARY.
For more information, call GAP at 865.622.4606 or contact your local Extension office. All in English. No charge.
Fri., Jan 6, 10 am EST. Marion, SC Mon, Jan 9, 9 am EST. Wilson, NC Tue, Jan 10, 9 am EST. Yanceyville, NC Wed, Jan 11, 9 am EST. Rocky Mount, NC Thu., Jan 12, 9 am EST. Smithfield, NC Thu, Jan 12, 4 pm EST. Chatham, VA Fri., Jan 13, 9 am EST. Blackstone, VA Tue, Jan 24, 9 am EST. Williamston, NC Wed., Jan 25, 9 am EST. Louisburg, NC Thu. Jan 26, 9 am EST. Greenville, NC Mon. Jan 30, 9 am EST. Lillington, NC Tue. Jan 31, 9 am EST. Goldsboro, NC
Book update: I am very happy to report that I have received an unexpected number of orders for my two history books--Burley & Beyond which centers on Kentucky and Ohio, and A History of Burley Tobacco in East Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina, which revolves around burley in those three states. I very quickly ran out of the copies of both that I have on hand, but I have found that more are stored at one of our printers, and I will retrieve them. If they don't have enough to fill all your orders, I will print more. I hope to have all your orders prepared and mailed by the first day of the Farm Show, or soon thereafter...Now, I have an embarrassing admission: In the last news item on this subject, I inadvertently left out the street name in the address I asked you to send orders to. If you mailed an order to that “address”, would you email your order to me again. Don’t send a check; I will invoice you once this is all straightened out. And if you would still like to place an order, please don’t send it by mail. Send an email instead, That address is chrisbickers@gmail.com. And thanks to all for your interest. | 
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