HARVEST IS NEARLY FINISHED... AND SO FAR, NO KILLING FROSTS

Heat and humidity did a number on the flue-cured tobacco grown at the Tobacco Research Station in Oxford, N.C., this year, says Carl Watson, the station’s ag research manager. Watson (foreground) brought leaf to Raleigh for the the N.C. State Fair Tobacco Looping Contest on October 15 . It looked a little ragged. “The ends of the tip leaves were hard to get ripe and were difficult to sell,” says Watson. As one observer noted, the flue-cured had in effect gotten “cooked in the field.” But the yield wasn’t affected, at least not at the station, and a yield of as much as 3,000 pounds per acre may be obtained. The station is located about 40 miles north of Raleigh. Photo by Christopher Bickers.

FLUE-CURED

NORTH CAROLINA—There was a little flue-cured left at the end of last week, almost all of it in the western Piedmont of western N.C. While it was not a large amount, for some growers it could be the difference between profit and loss for this season. The growers will have a much better chance of success if frost will hold off for about seven more days, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. Maybe it will: There’s been no frost at all in North Carolina so far. “To date, we seem to have dodged that bullet,” he says. Vann had earlier estimated that the statewide average yield would fall in the range of 2,000 to 2,100 pounds per acre. “I see no reason to change it,” he says. USDA’s projection of 120,000 harvested acres still seems credible, so flue-cured production for the state might total 240,000 pounds, about what USDA projected in September and much more than was produced in 2020. Late in the season, there has been tremendous yield loss in the east, and some yield has been lost in the Piedmont because of drought. But the overall all yield will still be better than last year.

VIRGINIA—Flue-cured here still lagged somewhat behind schedule, and it was thought that it might take into early November to get this type harvested. The problem was too much rain combined with windstorms that blew over plants. Much of the crop had to be stood back up once, and some twice…To make matters worse, this has been an expensive crop to produce: Among many other things, farmers had to find additional labor, and fuel cost a lot…The crop was better in the eastern part of the tobacco area—Mecklenburg, Lunenburg and Dinwiddie counties—than in the west—Pittsylvania and Halifax counties, says one source. “We could still have a good crop but we need the frost to hold off,” he says…One odd note: There was a drastic difference in the distribution of rainfall during the season. “Some farms got 24 to 30 inches, while others got less than four,” the source says.

SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA AND FLORIDA have completed harvest.

BURLEY

KENTUCKY--There might be a little burley left in Kentucky that has yet to be harvested but the vast majority of the state’s crop has been cut and barned, says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. “There are always a few stragglers.” Pearce expects the yields will be average and the color good. “I anticipate a quality burley crop.” But he hasn’t seen any stripped tobacco from this crop. The curing season has gone pretty well. “There were a couple of periods of wet weather that led to a touch of mold on some early cut tobacco, particularly on Connecticut broadleaf.” Other than that, the curing season has been mostly favorable. No killing frost yet: “A few areas experienced a very light frost on the 17^th,” says Pearce. “I saw some on a few roof tops but did not see any on the ground. There was no impact on plants still growing at that time.”

TENNESSEE--In the east, heavy rain slowed harvest last week. As of Oct. 17 , the USDA estimated that a small portion of the tobacco crops still needs to be harvest-ed, perhaps four percent. It may in fact be completely harvested by now. 

NORTH CAROLINA--Burley growers managed to make up some time by harvesting furiously, and by October 17, 85 percent of the crop was cut compared to 72 percent two weeks before. But their crop was still vulnerable to frost, which most years comes relatively early to farms here, many of which are in mountain locations. No killing frosts had been reported yet.

DARK

Dark fire-cured in the Black Patch will probably yield at least 3,300 pounds power acre and probably more, while dark air-cured will probably yield closer to 3,000 pounds. “We have a good dark crop out there,” says Andy Bailey, Kentucky-Tennessee Extension dark specialist. “It might not be the best we have ever had but it is certainly the best in the past six years.” Perhaps one percent of the dark tobacco in the Black Patch is still in the field, he says. “Harvest will be finished soon.”

WRAPPER

Connecticut and Pennsylvania cigar wrapper types in Kentucky and Tennessee were harvested six weeks ago. “It is all cured now and the Connecticut broadleaf type has been sold,” says Bailey. “Many growers have crops that averaged $4.50 to $5.00 per pound. I have heard of one crop that averaged $5.21 per pound” Pennsylvania 41 marketing doesn’t start till later…Connecticut yields were around 2,000 pounds per acre, he says, while 2,200 to 2,300 pound yields are expected for the Pennsylvania type.

WILL FALL'S FIRST FROST PUT A CHILL ON THE 2021 LEAF MARKET?

 

Buyers pore over flue-cured leaf at Old Belt Tobacco Sales in Rural Hall, N.C. File photo by Christopher Bickers.   A LOOK AT WHO'S FINISHED HARVEST ... AND WHO STILL HAS A WAY TO GO FLUE-CURED NORTH CAROLINA--A late first frost date would really help Piedmont growers. Frost can reasonably be expected in 15 or 20 days, and that could be a real problem. “This crop is definitely late—some farmers have just made their first pulling,” says Dennis White of the Old Belt Tobacco Sales auction near Winston-Salem. “It is coming off fast, and farmers are having a hard time getting enough barn space to cure it.” If the top crop is damaged by frost or freezing, it will be a shame. “The leaf that is still out there has plenty of body and is of good color, and it will be overripe,” he says... The Old Belt warehouse held its fifth sale yesterday (October 5). White says they are going well. “We are selling over a half million pounds per sale, and our price has been close to the contract price. The price and quality of lugs offered here was good while that of cutters and leaf were very good, says White. VIRGINIA—As in the N.C Piedmont, the Virginia flue-cured crop is way behind schedule and may take till early November to harvest completely. Too much rain was the main cause, but windstorms that blew over plants were also a problem. USDA estimated that 89 percent of the flue-cured in the state had been harvested by October 3. The quality seemed good at that point. “We could have a good crop if the frost will just hold off,” says one observer.   SOUTH CAROLINA--It’s all over for the 2021 crop except for selling it. And this crop turned out well: Even though it received more or less the same weather as eastern North Carolina, the crop fared much better. The state average yield was higher than in either of the past two years. William Hardee, S.C. area Extension agronomy agent, thinks the number may fall in the area of around 2,500 pounds per acre. Which would compare very favorably to the yields of the two previous seasons, neither of whose yield reached 2,000 pounds per acre…There were drought conditions in April and May which slowed crop development, followed by a wet June, says Hardee. Tropical Storm Elsa came at the beginning of July and had just enough wind to initiate a ripening response in the plant and put growers a little behind in harvesting. “But everyone is finished now. We completed harvest in the second or third week of September. By the beginning of October, the crop had been taken out and now the farmers just have to finish marketing it"…A change in S.C. tobacco Extension: TFN has learned that Extension tobacco specialist Matthew Inman has left to take a position in industry. No word yet on whether the position will be re-filled. (GEORGIA and FLORIDA are done.)  BURLEY

KENTUCKY-- Burley growers made strong headway in the week ended October 3 as the weather was conducive, says USDA’s Crop Progress and Condition Report. But that progress was stymied over the weekend because of widespread precipitation. Housed tobacco is in mostly good condition. House burn was reported as one percent moderate, eight percent light and 91 percent with none. TENNESSEE--Burley harvest is nearly finished, says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. Rain has caused some delays in cutting, but Richmond thinks the tobacco test plots at the Highland Rim Research Center in Springfield, Tn., will be completely harvested by Wednesday. “Maybe by a week from today harvest will be complete on the crop as a whole.” This won’t go down as a bumper crop, but the yield is good. Richmond doesn’t have an estimate of burley production in the state yet but still thinks the USDA figure of 4.5 million pounds is credible. The rain cut back a little the past week ending October 3 but this has been a very rainy season. Early rains had a negative impact on growth. “But since June 15 the rain has been more or less average,” he says. NORTH CAROLINA--As of October 3, only 72 percent of the burley had been harvested. Farmers were living on borrowed time: The predicted first frost date in Asheville was September 22. It hasn't come yet but farmers are cutting and barning as fast as they can.

JUNE RAINS BLAMED FOR SHORT EASTERN-N.C. CROP

 

Recently cut burley plants wilting in the field in Mitchell County, N.C. Through September 19, 71 percent of Kentucky burley, 75 percent of Tennessee burley and 50 percent of N.C. burley had been harvested, according to USDA. Photo courtesy of N.C. State University. FLUE-CURED In eastern North Carolina, the prospects for flue-cured look dismal. There had been hope among the more optimistic observers of U.S. leaf (this writer included) that the yield in the Eastern Belt might somehow rebound from the weather problems of last summer. It didn’t, and as the last of the leaf makes its way to the market, a shortfall has become a certainty. --The downfall of tobacco in the east began when precipitation in June hit record levels of 15 to 24 inches, followed by intense heat for two weeks in July when the heat index reached 105 degrees, followed by plenty of rain since, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. “Some fields were drowned to the extent that farmers abandoned them. That will have quite an effect on overall yield”. --Prices at flue-cured auctions have been steady so far, with good prices even for lower quality grades. “Pickings sold really well,” says Kenneth Kelly, owner of Horizon Ltd. warehouse of Wilson, N.C. “Now, we are beginning to see a trend in our leaf offerings from lower stalk to upper stalk leaf, and it seems there will be as good a demand for the upstalk. But I don’t have a good feel as to where the price is going to settle.” --You would think the price will be pretty good considering the short supply. “North and northwest of Wilson, we have a big crop, in good condition, because of opportune rains,” says one source in the Wilson market. “But east and southeast of Wilson the pounding rains took the weight right out of the tobacco. It never made a good weight.” This source knows of some good farmers in the east who were not able to produce more than 50 percent of a crop this year. “So there is very unlikely to be enough Eastern Belt leaf to go around.” --There’s been another crop problem in the east, says the source. “We are getting leaf now from a two-week hot spell we had in August. It dried the leaf so that it is not as clean and in some cases has rim burn.” --For the state as a whole, USDA estimates production of flue-cured of 240 million pounds, 30 percent more than a year ago. That seems extremely unlikely, but Vann thinks upwards of 200 million pounds might still be possible...Harvest of eastern N.C. flue-cured should be complete very soon, says Vann. In the Piedmont of North Carolina, around Greensboro, much of the flue-cured crop has been harvested, and it all might be in the barn in a week or 10 days, says Vann. The tobacco in the rest of the Old Belt has a longer way to go but has a good chance of being finished before the first frost date about three weeks from now. This area was much less affected by the bad weather of 2021 and a normal yield is expected. WRAPPER In Connecticut and  Massachusetts, produc-duction of Connecticut broadleaf will be down this season, says Jim LaMondia, Connecticut Agriculture Experiment Station plant pathologist. "But it won’t be for lack of effort on the part of the growers.” Plantings are probably the same or a little higher than in recent years, between 3,000 and 4,000 acres in the two states. But the yield and production will be down. The crop is not doing well on many farms, says LaMondia. “We have had way too much rain with a lot of variation within the valley. In places, the crop was drowned or stunted or both. Then we had wet and humid weather while we were curing, which lead to some storage mold.” Harvest is pretty much complete, but not much has been taken out of the barn. Already, though, a substantial part of this crop has been lost during the field season or to post-harvest problems. LaMondia doesn’t have a yield estimate yet, but while some crops look good, overall yields will definitely be lowered by weather conditions. The question of the day: LaMondia doesn’t know why manufacturers’ are looking for new places to grow broadleaf. “There are still growers here interested in growing it.” BURLEY In Tennessee, burley harvest is coming to an end, despite some rain delays. “We just need the spigot turned off,” says Mitchell Richmond, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. Much of the crop is in the barn, and the curing season has gone fairly well so far. But Richmond doesn’t know of any that has been stripped yet. He doesn’t have an estimate of production for Tennessee burley yet but notes that USDA estimated 4.5 million pounds in its last production report, nearly four percent more than in 2020. ***** In other tobacco news... Little change in USDA projections: The USDA September Crop Report figures for tobacco issued on the twelfth were very similar to those in August. A version of the new data showing production by type-- and by state for flue and burley--with percentage change from a year ago follows.   Flue-cured ·        North Carolina—240 million pounds, up 30 percent; ·        Virginia—30 million pounds, up 14 percent; ·        Georgia--16 million pounds, down 17 percent; and ·        South Carolina—16 million pounds, up 90 percent. ·        All U.S. flue-cured—304.400 million pounds, up 28 percent. Burley ·        Kentucky—74 million pounds, up 2 percent; ·        Pennsylvania--7.56 million pounds, up 4 percent; ·        Tennessee—4.5 million pounds, down 3 percent; ·        Virginia—612,000 pounds, down 10 percent; ·        North Carolina—493,000 pounds, down 6 percent. ·        All U.S. burley—87.165 million pounds, up 2 percent.   Fire-cured--47.5 million pounds, up 26 percent. Dark air-cured—25.78 million pounds, up 6 percent. Pennsylvania seedleaf –5.635 million pounds, no change. Southern Maryland—One million pounds, up 8 percent.   Whose yield improved since August? A few states had a better yield than had been projected in the August report, indicating good growing conditions in August: o  Pennsylvania burley yield was up slightly from 2,600 pounds to 2,700 pounds, o  Pennsylvania seedleaf grown in Pennsylvania was up just a bit in yield, from 2,400 to 2,450 pounds, o  Kentucky fire-cured was up 10 percent from 3,000 pounds to 3,300 pounds, and o  Kentucky dark air-cured yield was up from 2,300 to 2,500 pounds. o  Georgia flue-cured, meanwhile, was projected down from 2,300 pounds to 2,000 pounds.   The government’s summation: 2021 tobacco production of all types is forecast at 469 million pounds, down slightly from last month but up 20 percent from 2020. Area harvested is down slightly from USDA’s previous forecast but up 13 percent from last year. Yield for the 2021 crop year is forecast at 2,102 pounds per acre, up 6 pounds from last month and 136 pounds above last year.

HARVEST UPDATE: FINISHED IN FLORIDA, HALF DONE IN KENTUCKY

 

Auction sales for flue-cured have been strong so far, says Tommy Faulkner, auction manager at the American Tobacco Exchange in Wilson, N.C. “The trade is anticipating a short crop, so buyers are bidding aggressively on lugs and cutters, and even on some low end tobacco like pickouts.” Buyers are looking for clean styles. “You definitely want to pick out any waste," says Faulkner. "It will hurt your price.” The price has been good compared to the last few years. Faulkner estimates that quality lugs and cutters have brought from $1.35 to $1.75 per pound. File photo of flue-cured auction in Rural Hall, N.C., by Christopher Bickers. FLUE-CURED Wrapping it up on the Deep South: Florida growers are for all practical purposes finished with the 2021 crop, says J. Michael Moore, Georgia Extension tobacco specialist. “There is only one grower there that I know of who still has tobacco in the field,” he says. “Much of the crop in Florida was set out really early.” The crop in Georgia still has a way to go, he says. “I would estimate 35 percent is still in the field.” But the leaf is coming out of the fields in a hurry now. “A few Georgia growers have finished completely, but I am expecting it to take till the middle of the month for us to completely finish harvesting.” It isn’t a good crop in either state. “Heavy and unrelenting rains starting in June reduced yield and quality,” says Moore. “That’s sad because up to that point we had a beautiful crop with good expectations.” Rains associated with Tropical Storm Elsa and some of the other tropical storms were  part of the problem. As a result, Deep South yields will be off 25 percent to 30 percent. One lesson to be learned: Tobacco does not do well in wet soils in wet years. And there is a lesson from the delivery stations as well: “No company has a place for black oxidized leaf from the bottom of the stalk,” says Moore. “Buyers are definitely discriminating against it.” But that has been less of a problem lately. “As we are getting up the stalk, the leaf is getting clearer and has more body,” he says.   BURLEY AND DARK This season’s dark crops are among the best in Kentucky and Tennessee in a long time, says Andy Bailey, Kentucky-Tennessee Extension dark specialist. “All the early planted crop, which was planted by the end of May, is in or nearly in. The late crop—planted in mid or late June—will be coming in in the next week or so. "At this point I would say that 70 percent of the total dark crop has been harvested. Our cigar wrapper tobacco was harvested by the 20th of August.” USDA calculations: In Kentucky and Tennessee, burley cutting continues to move steadily with 47 and 46 percent harvested respectively as of September 5. “The tobacco crop is in mostly good condition at this time,” said USDA. In North Carolina, burley harvest was not nearly as far along, with 14 percent in the barn by that date. WRAPPER Connecticut broadleaf has enjoyed better curing conditions this season than in any other year since the type was first grown in the Black Patch. “It has a more even color this year,” Bailey says. “Humidity conditions have pushed the crop to ripen earlier. Maybe 10 days. We noticed that every time we had a rain event.” The Connecticut type may have found a place in western Kentucky and Tennessee. Jason Evitts grew it with a cousin for a second year on their farm in Hartsville, Tn. They did well enough in 2020 that they decided not to grow any burley this season, which was the first time there had been no burley on the farm in 100 years. When Tobacco Farmer Newsletter spoke to Evitts last Friday, all four acres of their Connecticut broadleaf had been harvested. But most of it was still in the barn--Leaf molds were a concern at that late date due to humid conditions. Evitts, the county Extension director in Trousdale County, says that to be successful with Connecticut, you have to change your management approach completely from the way you would approach corn or soybeans. “Management has to be intense,” he says. Welcome to the September I, 2021, issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email your subscription request to TFN at chrisbickers@gmail.com. Include phone number and your affiliation with tobacco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer or Extension agent.

HARVEST HITS STRIDE IN BURLEY COUNTRY

Burley harvest is picking up in Kentucky. Photo by Matt Barton, UK agricultural communications. After weather delays caused by too much rain, harvest is finally beginning in earnest in Kentucky. “For a while there, including last week, it seemed it was rainy and cloudy every day,” says Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist. “It affected those who were still topping, and it was definitely a detriment to harvesting. Even if you got your tobacco cut, you didn’t want it on the ground if a heavy downpour came along.” But now the forecasts are for good weather this week, so farmers are trying to catch up. “We are behind a little now,” he says.   How far along is harvest across the tobacco belt? The National Agricultural Statistic Services projects that for Burley as of August 22: In Kentucky, 89 percent was blooming, 75 percent had been topped, and with 23 percent of the crop cutting had been harvested. For Flue-cured, harvest in Virginia was 40 percent complete, in North Carolina, 41 percent complete, in South Carolina, 72 percent complete, and in Georgia, 71 percent complete.  The market season is well under way for flue-cured growers, and farmers generally seem happy with the price, says Matthew Vann, N.C. Extension tobacco specialist. Whether that will stand up will depend to a great extent on the size of this crop. On August 12, USDA projected that N.C. will produce 240 million pounds this year, up a whopping 30 percent from 2020. That strains all credulity, but Vann says it could happen, especially if China contracted a substantial amount.  Presented with some skepticism, the USDA August Crop Report figures showed production by type with percentage change from a year ago as follows:                                                                                    Flue-cured North Carolina—240 million pounds, up 30 percent;  Virginia—30 million pounds, up 14;  Georgia--8.4 million pounds, down 4 percent; and  South Carolina—16 million pounds, up 90 percent. All flue-cured—304.400 million pounds, up 28 percent. Burley                                   Kentucky—74 million pounds, up 2 percent; Pennsylvania--7.28 million pounds, up 4 percent; Tennessee—4.5 million pounds, down 3 percent; Virginia—612,000 pounds, down 10 percent; North Carolina—493,000 pounds, down 6 percent.                   All US burley—86.885 million pounds, up 2 percent.  Fire-cured--47.6 million pounds, up 26 percent. Dark air-cured--24.44 million pounds, up 6 percent. Pennsylvania Seedleaf –5.52 million pounds, no change. Southern Maryland-- 880,000 pounds, down 4 percent.   And finally...USDA summarized the outlook for the US crop as a whole as follows: "The 2021 United States all tobacco production is forecast at 470 million pounds, up 21 percent from 2020. Area harvested, at 224,100 acres, is down slightly from previous forecast but up 13 percent from last year. Yield for the 2021 crop year is forecast at 2,096 pounds per acre, 130 pounds above last year." Auctions begin. The Live Auction season starts Wednesday with sales in and around Wilson, N.C. The first sale will begin in the 10 o'clock hour ((Contact Kenneth Kelly at 252 292 8822 for details) at the Horizon Ltd. warehouse at 1723 Goldsboro St., Wilson. Once finished there, buyers will move to the American Tobacco Exchange warehouse at 2101 Miller Rd., also in Wilson. For information about that sale, call Tommy Faulkner at 910 585 2708. After lunch, buyers will drive down the road to the Coastal Piedmont Auction, 1291 Johnston Parkway, Kenly, N.C., to finish the day's marketing. (For information, contact Mickey Pegram at 270 932 1830, Roger Stanley at 919 628 9075 or the office at 919 284 0504)...The last of the sales for this year opens August 31 in Rural Hall, N.C., Old Belt Tobacco Sales, located at 1395 Old Belt Way., will be selling every Tuesday. Welcome to the August II, 2021, issue of Tobacco Farmer Newsletter. If you haven't signed on to receive the newsletter regularly, please email your subscription request to TFN at chrisbickers@gmail.com. Include phone number and your affiliation with tobacco, such as farmer, buyer, dealer or Extension agent.

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